The Tigers have had the Seahawks’ number over the past several seasons

UNCW (9-4, 0-1) at Towson (7-7, 0-1)

2 p.m. | SECU Arena | FloHoops | Listen | Live Stats

Thankfully, the Seahawks don’t have long to stew on Thursday night’s loss at Drexel, as UNCW makes the short drive south to meet Towson at SECU Arena on Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers have held the upper hand in what has become a heated rivalry in recent years, with Towson winning eight of the past nine games.

Here’s what to watch for as the Seahawks look bounce back from a disappointing CAA opener.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 121 overall; No. 86 offense, No. 193 defense.

KenPom rankings for Towson: No. 181 overall; No. 236 offense, No. 145 defense.

KenPom forecast: UNCW 67, Towson 66 (51 percent chance of victory)

Meet the Tigers

Notable Wins: Dec. 6 vs. UMasss (81-71)
Notable Losses: Nov. 16 vs. Houston (65-49); Nov. 17 vs. Wake Forest (71-61); Nov. 19 vs. North Texas (65-39).

Personnel: F Charles Thompson (8.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.5 blocks); F Christian May (12.1 points, 4.4 rebounds); F Tyler Tejada (10.7 points); G Dylan Williamson (9.4 points, 3.5 assists); G Nendah Tarke (5.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 steals); F Messiah Jones (6.1 points, 4.3 rebounds); F Tomiwa Sulaiman (5.9 points, 4.1 rebounds; F Mekhi Lowery (4.7 points, 4.1 rebounds).

When Last we Met: Towson 57, UNCW 53 (Feb. 25, 2023)

Leading 46-32 with 13:44 remaining, and it seemed the Seahawks were going to close out the regular season with an impressive Senior Night victory.

Then things got weird and UNCW turned it over five times, didn’t hit a field goal over the final 11 minutes and endured an eight-minute scoring drought. Emotions ran high, things got physical, and the Tigers REALLY enjoyed themselves.

Unfortunately, Cam Holden and Nicolas Timberlake are no longer around to receive sweet revenge, as Towson has shuffled its roster around returners Charles Thompson and Christian May.

With so many newcomers and other players stepping into larger roles, offense has been a struggle for Towson this season, with the Tigers ranking 298th nationally in 3-point shooting (29.8 percent) and 342nd on 2-point attempts (43.9 percent). They’ve even had trouble making free throws, hitting 61.9 percent on the season — 354th out of 362 Division 1 teams.

Still, the Tigers have their defensive foundation, and their physicality and elite rebounding make them a dangerous opponent every night.

May and Thompson are the go-to guys, but Williamson, a freshman point guard, definitely has some potential while Tarke is a helpful addition that just became eligible in December.

It’s Personal

When your coach is using words like “selfish” and “stubborn” in a postgame interview, it’s unlikely Friday was particularly enjoyable when the Hawks got together to watch film.

Along with picking up on how the offense could have been more active, that film is also going to show Drexel making every effort to push the Seahawks around on defense while setting shop in the paint all night.

Then, add in the recent history between UNCW and Towson, with the Tigers taking two straight chippy, emotional games in Trask, and there’s a lot of reasons the Seahawks should be ready to play for every second of 40 minutes or beyond.

Not that Towson ever needs a reason to play an intense, physical game, they’re going to double down on it after watching what the Dragons were able to accomplish.

That particular gameplan comes with the implication of, “UNCW isn’t tough enough to compete with us, and they’ll fold up and take the shots we give them.”

Facing an 0-2 start in league play and an eighth loss to Towson in nine games, this one has to be about having some pride, taking the fight to the Tigers and getting back the UNCW identity.

Paint Points

As it often does, that 12×15 painted box is going to decide this one, and both teams are looking for several successes there to make it happen.

Though it hasn’t necessarily led to buckets, Towson is getting into the paint and getting shots up on half of its possessions per the CBB Analytics chart below. (FG shooting percentages on the left; where they’re shooting them from on the right.)

UNCW’s interior defense was a mess on Thursday, as Drexel got 23 FGA in the lane, including 16 that were considered at-rim. In all, the Dragons made 15 of those 23 attempts, but it also generated some opportunities on the perimeter as the Seahawk defenders brought help.

Meanwhile, the Hawks went 7 of 14 on paint FGA, including 4 of 8 at-rim attempts.

(For comparison: UNCW got 27 paint field goal attempts at Kentucky against its stable of future NBA Draft picks. It’s possible against everyone.)

It’s no accident that when UNCW stopped generating paint touches, more 3-point attempts started going up and significantly fewer went in the basket.

In most cases, “open” 3-point look you get from passing the ball around the perimeter might be a pretty good shot, but it’s not nearly as open as the look that develops when the defense is moving, rotating and getting out of its shape. The margin is thin in CAA play, and on some nights, turning one “good” shot into a “great” shot could be the difference.

The second half of that equation is rebounding.

As much as the Tigers have struggled offensively, there’s one massive equalizer — Towson is the nation’s second-best offensive rebounding team, running down nearly 43 percent of its own misses.

Even the worst team shooting team in the nation would be able to put some points on the board with 15 extra shots, most of which it grabs within five feet of the rim.

They’re also not too shabby on the defensive boards, grabbing about 73 percent.

UNCW doesn’t even have to win the rebounding battle to succeed in the paint; it’s all about minimalizing the bonus chances for Towson and creating few more for itself.

A Bigger Role?

Another of the problems UNCW had to deal with on Thursday was how screwed up the regular rotations got with all three big men drawing two fouls by the 11-minute mark.

Nick Farrar led the way with 11 minutes, while Khamari McGriff was next at 10 minutes, followed by Eric Van Der Heijden’s seven. The Hawks actually went super small and played without usual five out there for 12 minutes.

Good things (relative to the situation) were happening with McGriff on the court, based on the CBB Analytics data below, with the percentile ranking highlighted.

Clearly, the offense took a step back with McGriff, but the Seahawks were so much better on defense that it didn’t matter.

Now, looking back at the full season impact numbers (vs. D1 opponents) and it’s the same story: the offense isn’t nearly as productive, but the Seahawks are the best version of themselves defensively, and overall, are succeeding at a higher level on their net rating.

Still a long way to go for McGriff in several areas, but he’s made massive strides on defense this season.

With so many struggles at stopping Drexel and Arkansas from scoring at-will in the paint, it feels like today’s matchup is a good one for McGriff to get some extended minutes because of his ability to slow down Towson’s most reliable scorer.

UNCW Is 6-0 (4-0 vs. D1) when he plays 13+ minutes and 3-4 otherwise.

Around the Coastal

(all games on FloSports)

Delaware at Hofstra, 2 p.m.

Let’s see if the Blue Hens are contenders, because we know the Pride is.

Delaware has looked great at times this season, including a win over Xavier and almost knocking off a good Princeton team, but the Hens have also had a few head-scratchers, like falling to No. 283 Rider.

Big man Jyare Davis has scored in double figures all but one game and looks like he’s all set for an All-CAA season.

Does he have enough help?

Campbell at Hampton, 2 p.m.
Drexel at William & Mary, 2 p.m.
Charleston at Stony Brook, 6:31 p.m.
NC A&T at Elon, 7 p.m.