KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 115 overall; No. 97 offense, No. 155 defense.

KenPom rankings for Arkansas: No. 66 overall; No. 65 offense, No. 65 defense.

KenPom forecast: Arkansas 78, UNCW 70 (22 percent chance of victory)

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Meet the Hogs

Notable Wins: Nov. 22 vs. Stanford (77-74); Nov. 29 vs. Duke (80-75).
Notable Losses: Nov. 17 vs. UNCG (78-72); Nov. 24 vs. North Carolina (87-72); Dec. 9 vs. Oklahoma (79-70)

Personnel: G Tramon Mark (16.9 points, 54.9% FG, 42.9% 3FG); G Khalif Battle (15.3 points, 43.6% 3FG); F Trevon Brazile (9.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks); G Keyon Menifield Jr. (6.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2 assists); G Davonte Davis (6.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists); G El Ellis (6.2 points); F Makhi Mitchell (6.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.1 blocks).

As always, the Razorbacks have a wealth of talent thanks to a strong transfer portal haul along with a couple of four-star freshmen, but with seven newcomers in the rotation, Arkansas is still looking for consistency.

This team is going to be a nightmare by March, but at the moment, it’s not clear which version of the Hogs that will show up: the one that handled Duke with little issue, or the one that dropped a home game to UNCG.

At a glance, Arkansas should look pretty familiar, rotating a deep group of interchangeable guards an athletic big man in Brazile while pushing the pace. The Razorbacks want to push the pace and get int he lane, but Battle and Mark have been deadly from the perimeter. Menifield, who just became eligible two games ago, is going to make a difference the rest of the way.

The Razorbacks get about 50 percent of their shots in the paint and around the basket, but like UNCW, they take — and make — more mid-range jumpers than most.

Arkansas coach Eric Musselman was rumored to have been interested in the UNCW job during the Great 80 Day Coaching Search of 2010. Sweet memories.

Been There (kind of, at least)

Although this marks the first-ever trip to Bud Walton Arena, it won’t be the Seahawks’ first rodeo with a rabid SEC fanbase in a massive gym this season.

After silencing 20,000 fans at Rupp Arena, UNCW coach Takayo Siddle pointed out the difference in his team from its trip to North Carolina during the 2022-23 season to their time at Kentucky four weeks ago.

Back in 2022, Siddle saw his guys staring up at the banners and snapping pictures, and felt like the Hawks were a little intimidated by the Carolina mystique.

This time around in Lexington, he only saw a team that knew it was good enough to compete with an elite program on its home floor.

Now, UNCW is a step beyond that. This team doesn’t just believe it can compete; it knows exactly what its capable of and exactly how to do it.

An opportunity to play on Nolan Richardson Court is pretty cool, and shouldn’t be something anyone takes for granted, but the days of getting starstruck by national championship-winning programs are in the past.

Blueprint Received

The Spartans rolled into Fayetteville as 14.5-point underdogs, and instead, jumped out to a 14-point halftime lead on Nov. 17.

The formula UNCG used to pull off the upset might just sound like one UNCW is well-equipped to follow.

• The Spartans scored 36 points off the pick and roll, and used it to establish an early lead, scoring 20 of those points in the first half. Specifically, the Razorbacks were getting burned when hedging/double-teaming off a screen, which accounted for 22 of those points.

• Veteran two-way guard Keyshaun Langley was operating at a high level out of the P&R on his way to 23 points and 5 assists with just 1 turnover.

• UNCG, which ranks 30th nationally in turnover rate, committed just 10 while forcing 13. The Razorbacks managed just four steals.

• Defending the 3-point line is an emphasis for the Spartans, and they executed in forcing Arkansas to shoot 4 of 23 from beyond the arc.

• On the other end, UNCG wasn’t lights-out, but it did hit six 3-pointers in the first half before finishing 9 of 24 from beyond the arc.

The Spartans are a great P&R team in the 86th percentile nationally, but UNCW utilizes it even more effectively, ranking in the 97th percentile. The Seahawks are scoring on more than half of their possessions in which Phillips is handling the ball on the pick and roll.

Whether he’s hedged or the defenders switch, there’s little difference in the efficiency and Phillips has scored 59 points on 56 possessions.

The Seahawks haven’t utilized the roll man on the P&R often this season, but we’ve seen more of it lately with Khamari McGriff and Nick Farrar slipping screens into open buckets. Those looks are likely to appear several times today.

UNCW enters this game having committed just 16 turnovers in the past three games, dropping their rate to 12.6 percent, which ranks fourth nationally.

In each of the past four games, the Seahawks have shot better than 35 percent from 3-point range, and twice, topped the 40-percent mark. Only once over that stretch has an opponent hit better than 30 percent from beyond the arc.

Battle of Benches

Any player on the floor at any time of the game is capable of getting a bucket.

Such is life when two of the nation’s deepest squads meet, with UNCW ranking No. 1 in bench scoring (40.8 points per game) and Arkansas not far behind at No. 7 (37.8).

Trazarien White is leading the “second” unit in scoring at 19.7 points while KJ Jenkins seems to be finding an offensive groove, scoring in double figures in four straight games.

Interestingly enough, Arkansas brings its leading scorer off the bench with Battle embracing his role in the name of winning. Recently, they also tried using Mark with the second unit, which worked out pretty well.

The finishers will be far more important than the starters today, but it could make for a fun chess match between Musselman and Siddle as they try to match up their timelines, particularly early in the game.

Fellow UNCW alum and member of The Seahawk brotherhood Jackson Fuller covers Arkansas and tweeted out this bit from Musselman’s press conference earlier this week. (Substack won’t embed tweets now, so follow Jackson here!)

Tip-Ins

• UNCW’s 9-2 record through 11 games trails only the 2016-17 team, which started 10-1. The Hawks also got off to a 9-2 start in the 2005-06 season.

• Today’s game marks the first meeting with Arkansas.

• Over the past three seasons, the Razorbacks have made two appearances in the Elite Eight and one in the Sweet Sixteen.

• Backup point guard Shemar Rathan-Mayes has committed just two turnovers in his past 63 minutes on the floor, scoring 14 points on nine field goal attempts. Quality work for a guy who understands his role as a ballhandler and defender.

• White has hit 5 of 6 from 3-point range over the past four games, pushing his season total to 9 of 20 (45 percent). He was 22 of 78 (28.2 percent) last season, and 9 of 42 (21.4 percent) as a freshman.

• UNCW is now 3-17 against SEC opponents, adding to wins over Auburn (1992) and Mississippi State (1996) — the only teams that have visited Trask.

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