Seahawks Fly South for Another Road Stretch
UNCW meets Georgia Southern on Saturday afternoon in Statesboro
UNCW (7-2) at Georgia Southern (0-10)
3 p.m. | Hanner Fieldhouse | ESPN+ | Listen | Live Stats
Time for another road swing!
With non-D1 competition finally finished, the Seahawks are embarking on a five-game road trip that will see them finish out the nonconference schedule before diving into CAA play in January.
First, though, UNCW visits Hanner Fieldhouse on Saturday afternoon to meet a Georgia Southern team desperate to get into the win column after a rocky start.
Here’s what you’ll need to know, along with this week’s episode of Perchcast, which features plenty of discussion.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 116 overall; No. 137 offense, No. 121 defense.
KenPom rankings for GSU: No. 327 overall; No. 294 offense, No. 335 defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 78, Georgia Southern 69 (81 percent chance of victory)
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Meet the Eagles
Notable Losses: Nov. 20 at ECU (82-64); Nov. 21 vs. Northeastern (93-76); Dec. 12 at Tennessee (74-56).
Personnel: G Tyren Moore (11 points, 38.8% 3FG); G Deuce Dean (9.9 points, G Jamar Franklin (9.3 points); F Avantae Parker (6.3 points, 5.3 rebounds); F Eugene Brown III (8 points, 4 rebounds, 60% FG); F Cam Bryant (6.4 points, 4.6 rebounds); F Nate Brafford (4.6 points, 4.2 rebounds).
Better days are ahead for the Eagles under first-year coach Charlie Henry, who spent time in the NBA, and most recently, spent four seasons working for Nate Oats at Alabama.
For now though, Henry and his squad are gutting out the early stages of a rebuild and very little has gone well.
To add some context to the KenPom numbers above, Synergy currently puts GSU in the 7th percentile for offensive performance and 5th percentile for defense.
They’re turning the ball over on 21 percent of possessions, rank 355 of 362 teams in allowing offensive rebounds, and give up 81.5 points per game.
Moore and Franklin are the most capable scorers, while Brafford defends the paint well.
Hanner Fieldhouse looks like a pretty cool spot! It’s like a compact version of Trask.
Pace and Space
UNCW might not run up *49* transition possessions as it did on Sunday vs. Montreat, but the conditions are right for the Seahawks to take flight early and often against the Eagles on Saturday.
One of the biggest factors in GSU’s poor defensive numbers is its inability to stop opponents from running, and once they’re off to the races, they’re putting the ball in the basket at an exceptional level.
On 12.8 transition possessions per game, GSU’s opponents are scoring 1.17 points per possession, ranking them in the 7th percentile. Those opponents have shot 63 percent from the field in transition, including 14 of 33 from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, UNCW is averaging 15.6 transition possessions and scoring 1.21 points per thanks to shooting 69.8 percent with 19 transition 3-pointers.
Bench Breakout
Transition basketball — in both directions — certainly lends itself to the main point that Takayo Siddle made during his radio show regarding getting more production from the guys coming in with the second unit not named Trazarien White, particularly against Division I opponents.
And it’s not just about those guys finding ways to score.
“Just getting them to understand that they’re going to play, but in those minutes that they’re playing, you have to make sure that you’re trying to impact winning in different ways of scoring, and that’s my main message,” Siddle said.
Facing an opponent that has struggled to rebound and take care of the ball, those opportunities will likely present themselves a little more often than usual, whether it’s making a key deflection on the press, making the right toss ahead in transition or getting back on defense to stop a leak.
Is this one of the final times to make an impression before the rotation starts getting trimmed? It certainly appears Siddle plans to stick with the five-in, five-out substitution pattern for now, but recent history tells us he’s typically looking to lean on eight’ish guys in CAA play.
It sure does feel like one of those guys — KJ Jenkins, Nick Farrar and/or Nolan Hodge is due for the offensive explosion we know they’re capable of thanks to their long-range shooting.
But it all starts with defense and maximum, and whichever of those guys does it best tonight, is likely the one that ends up with a few extra open looks from the wing.
Given Siddle laid out specific plans to talk to those guys on Monday evening, and his track record on getting immediate results with the staff’s adjustments, it’s a safe bet we’re seeing someone from the bench have a breakthrough game.
Jenkins has stepped up his defense significantly in recent weeks, so this seems like an ideal chance for him to showcase how quickly he can flip that to defense.
A Tale of Two Paints
GSU’s shot chart is surprising for a few reasons, because despite their relative lack of size, they’re able to get a good number of shots at the rim and in the paint.
Those shots aren’t falling though, almost at an unbelievable rate, as Synergy puts their at-rim field goal percentage in the 0th percentile.
One day, their luck is going to change on that front, even if for a few minutes. It’s important the Seahawks wall up in the paint, avoid fouls and play great positional defense. With the number of shots GSU is able to get around the basket, just a couple of makes could really change their confidence.
Meanwhile, GSU’s defense isn’t great anywhere, but the Eagles have been able to put up a little resistance around the rim.
Going to the earlier discussion of a bench breakout, I like Farrar’s chances in this one because of his ability to score in so many ways, especially with his craftiness in the lane.
After playing just four minutes at Kentucky, he’ll be motivated to put a good one on tape vs. D1 competition.
