The Seahawks need another bounce-back performance after tough loss

UNCW (5-2) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1)

4 p.m. | Rupp Arena | SEC Network | Listen | Live Stats

With the Seahawks headed to one of the cathedrals of college basketball on Saturday afternoon, a look at what UNCW will have to do to compete with a Kentucky team poised to add yet another banner to the Wildcats’ storied history.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 133 overall; No. 129 offense, No. 150 defense.

KenPom rankings for UK: No. 12 overall; No. 3 offense, No. 50 defense.

KenPom forecast: Kentucky 88, UNCW 68 (5 percent chance of victory)

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Meet the Cats

Notable Wins: Nov. 20 vs. Saint Joseph’s (96-88 OT); Nov. 24 vs. Marshall (118-82); Nov. 28 vs. Miami (95-73).
Notable Loss: Nov. 14 vs. Kansas (89-84)

Personnel: G Rob Dillingham (15.4 points, 5.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals 53.3% 3FG); G Antonio Reeves (18.9 points, 5 rebounds, 44% 3FG); F Tre Mitchell (14.9 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.4 blocks); G D.J. Wagner (13.1 points, 3.3 assists); G Reed Sheppard (12.3 points, 3.6 assists, 63.3% 3FG); F Adou Thiero (8.2 points, 7.2 rebounds); G Justin Edwards (10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds).

Yeah, there’s a minimum of five guys that will play in the NBA on that list — and that’s not even accounting for big man Aaron Bradshaw, the future first-round pick who is nearing his UK debut after an offseason foot surgery.

Since their loss to Kansas, the Wildcats have found another gear on offense, averaging 102.5 points over the past four games while hitting 54 of 105 (51.4%) attempts from 3-point range and assisting one another on 103 of 154 (66.9%) field goals.

Dillingham, a freshman from Hickory, is the engine for their absurdly efficient offense. Watching his command of the offense and decision-making, it’s hard to believe he’s just a few games into his collegiate career.

To this point, Kentucky is getting about 90 percent of its shots in the paint or beyond the 3-point arc. Pretty good plan, as those are the most valuable shots in basketball.

Finding Ourselves

In reviewing the ECU game, it only got more perplexing.

The Seahawks came out diving on the floor and looking to push the ball in transition on rebounds, yet again using the mass substitution method used to maintain energy across lineups.

Then, those things gradually faded out.

After making a few of the four- and five-man substitutions in the first 10 minutes, the Seahawks went to a more traditional pattern of one or two guys here and there.

Rather than picking up the pace, UNCW appeared content to get into a halfcourt game and failed to take advantage of an ECU defense that had struggled to stop opponents on the break.

With the Pirates — who were in a bit of foul trouble — leaning on five players for all but 17 minutes in the second half, it seemed like the perfect time for UNCW to use depth and speed to its advantage.

Instead, the Seahawks tightened up the rotation.

As the Pirates stepped up its physicality and started dominating the boards in the second half, the UNCW defense wore down but never returned to two players key to the best version of it.

After noticing the short outings for Noah Ross and Khamari McGriff on Thursday, we looked a little further into their impact — and it’s more surprising even than the feeling you get watching.

(This data comes from CBB Analytics, and as a primer, the ratings are based on player/team stats converted out to 100 possessions. The reasoning for that is to create an accurate measure, no matter how fast or slow a team is playing. For example, scoring 50 points against Virginia is way different from scoring 50 points against NC State.)

Last night, in the seven minutes McGriff and Ross played together, the Seahawks had a 99th percentile defensive performance, which came out to 77.2 points per 100 possessions. Even McGriff alone makes a major impact on defense.

With both on the bench for 27 minutes, ECU’s offensive rating jumped to 129.6 — a 1st percentile performance.

Naturally, I was pretty shocked with how massive of a departure that was, so I looked at all games vs. Division I opponents this season.

It’s not as dramatic as Thursday night, but the analytics are pretty clear: UNCW is a better team with Ross and McGriff on the floor, but at the very least, McGriff.

That definitely sacrifices some offensive firepower for a few minutes here and there, but the cost of not shoring up the defense is much higher.

So, all of that finally brings us me to a point. I think. Hopefully…

The Seahawks are deep enough and talented enough to win games in a lot of ways, and even in the course of a game, use different lineups to dictate how a game is being played, or if necessary, to momentarily slow down an opponent’s momentum.

The only real “challenge” of having a rotation like this is the process of figuring out how and where certain guys fit together to maximize one another on the floor. It’s Dec. 2, and our team is still a work in progress — but those answers are starting to come into focus.

UNCW got away from its identity at on Thursday night and played the second half that the Pirates wanted, eventually getting knocked out by ECU’s physicality and the frustration of being unable to string together stops.

Kentucky’s offense is exponentially better, and their players are exponentially bigger, faster and stronger.

Who knows what can happen if the Hawks come out and throw the first punches? Confidence is a hell of a drug, and this team has plenty of reason to have it. It’s going to take every single guy maxing out their minutes and handing it off to a teammate.

What would it mean to win this game? I’d probably name my first-born Takayo.

Is winning the only measure of success for a mid-major at Kentucky? Not at all.

The Seahawks aren’t where they need to be offensively or defensively yet this season, and it sounded like they were struggling with the details of getting the offense set on Thursday night.

There are no moral victories, but there is progress to be had in scaring the hell out of a Final Four contender thanks to your toughness and depth.

Shooters Shoot

If Kentucky has one weakness, it’s defending the arc. (Weakness is relative, because they’re still above average.

Until Thursday night, UNCW’s 3-point shooting had been its greatest strength. Really, it still is, because one complete outlier of a night shouldn’t change anything in terms of taking those shots.

(Data below from ShotQuality, which measures the value of every shot in every college basketball game to create its model, taking into account a particular team’s makes and misses, along with who’s shooting them.)

Based on the shots that the Seahawks put up, SQ would have expected a Seahawk win fueled with success from beyond the arc.

The 3-pointer is the great equalizer in these games — and the Seahawks are due to have a few bounces go their way.