Thursday night’s win over Drexel should be the start of a big finish for UNCW

UNCW (21-7, 11-4 CAA)
at Delaware (13-15, 5-10)

4 p.m. | Bob Carpenter Center | FloHoops | Listen | Stats

The final road trip of the regular season comes to an end with an opponent the Seahawks have built a little history with over the past 12 months.

After UNCW celebrated its regular-season championship with a victory at the Bob Carpenter Center last February, Delaware ultimately won the battle with a gutsy win in the CAA championship game 10 days later.

There won’t be any trophies on the line this afternoon, but the result will certainly influence how things play out in the tournament just a few weeks from now.

UNCW Game Notes | Delaware Game Notes

Here’s what’s on the line and everything else you need to know…

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 151 overall; No. 217 offense, No. 99 defense.

KenPom rankings for Delaware: No. 232 overall; No. 236 offense, No. 237 defense.

KenPom forecast: UNCW 68, Delaware 66 (55 percent chance of victory.)

Delaware personnel: G Jameer Nelson Jr. 19.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2,5 steals; F Jyare Davis 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds; G L.J. Owens 10 points, 2.7 rebounds; G Christian Ray 9.5 points, 8.6 rebounds; F Gianmarco Arletti 5.6 points, 3.1 rebounds; G Ebby Asamoah 7.0 points; G Cavan Reilly 5.9 points, 4.6 3FG.

Nelson is The Guy, and he’s capable of going for 30 any given night. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch Shykeim Phillips and Jamarii Thomas take turns at slowing him down. Going the other way, Nelson is one of the most opportunistic defenders in the nation, ranking 31st in steal rate.

Davis is a crafty, efficient scorer who always seems to find the ball when it counts, and Ray is an exceptional rebounder at just 6-6.

At Stake

The Seahawks have already locked in a bye for the CAA Tournament, meaning they’ll begin play in the quarterfinals on Sunday, March 5.

UNCW can’t reach higher than No. 3 in the league standings, but they can’t fall below No. 4., where Towson currently sits a game back. A win e

That, and these guys took an NCAA Tournament trip from Jaylen Sims, Mike Okauru, Jaylen Fornes and James Baker Jr. They must pay for their crimes.

Riding the Wave

Withe Delaware struggling this season, chances are, there’s not going to be a ton of energy in the building for the late-afternoon trip.

The Seahawks are going to have to create their own energy for this one, and after the slow start at Drexel on Thursday, they need to be keenly focused on avoiding a similar hole.

A mature team — the kind of team that guts out at two-overtime win on the road — comes into this game with a business-like approach, follows the gameplan and takes advantage of the obvious issue the Hens are dealing with this season.

Thursday night was huge, and tonight represents an opportunity to keep moving forward rather another two steps back.

Pressure, Running and Gunning

On the surface, Delaware is about average in terms of turnover rate, but according to Synergy, the Hens struggle mightily when it comes to fullcourt pressure, watching their turnover rate balloon all the way to 23.3 percent.

The Hawks have turned up their defensive pressure a bit lately in order to create easy offense lately, and they’ve had a good bit of success, forcing an average of 14.6 turnovers in the past six games.

Where the Seahawks need to be careful against Delaware, is the Blue Hens are among the nation’s worst teams at defending the 3-poitner as opponents are shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc — a figure that ranks 340th nationally.

Delaware would prefer the Seahawks try their chances from long range, and they’re going to defend accordingly. This also goes to the point of maturity, and whether UNCW knows better than to fall for the shiny fools’ gold 3-point looks.

Aside from Davis, who is really good, the Hens are pretty small overall. Start there, and the Hawks are set up for a much more efficient performance from beyond the arc.

In the Clutch

The final plays of regulation and the first overtime vs. Drexel weren’t masterpieces.

In the first one, Shykeim Phillips was given the chance to beat his man off the bounce, but seemingly fumbled the dribble, got hurried, and tossed up a long fadeaway jumper when he still had time to get a better look.

In the second overtime, Drexel’s Coletrane Washington did an excellent job keeping Phillips out of the lane and forcing a contested jumper. The Hawks were standing around, watching Phillips dribble and it was apparent he was taking the shot.

The first one was totally understandable because Phillips is an elite one-on-one offensive player in this league, and more often than not, he’s getting to his spot.

The second? Given that Trazarien White and Amari Kelly had scored all of UNCW’s points in overtime, it would have been nice to see them get a touch there. At the least, they would have made pretty persuasive decoys.

All that’s to say this: UNCW’s late-game “issues” are vastly overstated because of three plays — Charleston, and these two.

Here’s what CBB Analytics has to say about the Seahawks in “clutch” situations, which are defined as the final five minutes of regulation + overtime in a game with a margin of six points or fewer.

I knew the numbers weren’t nearly as bad as they’d been made out, but I was definitely surprised they were this good.

Around the CAA

N.C. A&T at Towson, 4 p.m. (FloSports)

The best matchup of the day, and an absolute must-win for the Tigers in their quest to lock up a top-four finish. After this one, Towson heads to Charleston on Thursday then visits Trask on Saturday night.

Drexel at Hampton, 4 p.m. (FloSports)

The Dragons have had issues on the road this season, but with a fourth-place finish still up for grabs, will Drexel take care of business?

William & Mary at Northeastern, 12 p.m. (FloSports)

This one will help sort of some of the mess among the five teams currently tied at 5-10 in the league.

Hofstra at Stony Brook, 6:30 p.m. (FloSports)

It’s been over a month since the Pride lost, and it doesn’t seem likely they’ll get another challenge until D.C. Another possible Aaron Estrada explosion, if he plays in the final 10 minutes.