Hawks, Dragons Set for Slugfest in Philly
UNCW can lock up a first-round bye in the CAA Tournament
UNCW (20-7, 10-4 CAA)
at Drexel (15-12, 9-6 CAA)
7 p.m. | The DAC | FloHoops | Listen | Stats
No matter how unpredictable these teams have been in recent weeks, there’s one virtual certainty when the Seahawks and Dragons get together.
There will be fouls, bruises, and most likely, a little blood.
It wouldn’t be right for a mid-February matchup in Philly if it weren’t two tough, physical teams squaring off in a high-stakes matchup inside a cozy gym on a chilly evening.
With a victory, UNCW can clinch a top-four league finish, ensuring it will receive a bye into the CAA Tournament quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Drexel’s back is against the wall as it looks to avoid a fifth-place finish and the extra tournament game that comes with it.
Here’s what to watch for as we begin the final two weeks of the CAA schedule…
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 151 overall; No. 208 offense, No. 107 defense.
KenPom rankings for Drexel: No. 203 overall; No. 258 offense, No. 126 defense.
KenPom forecast: Drexel 63, UNCW 62 (45 percent chance of victory.)
Drexel personnel: F Amari Williams 13.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 2.3 blocks, 51.9 FG%; G Coletrain Washington 9.7 points; G Justin Moore 9.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists; G Lamar Oden Jr. 8.6 points, 5.4 rebounds; G Luke House 8.3 points, 3.4 rebounds; F Mate Okros 4.7 points, 3.4 rebounds; G Yame Butler 5.7 points, 43.8 3FG%; G Jamie Bergens 6.0 points; F Garfield Turner 3.3 points, 3.2 rebounds.
The Dragons are The Most Interesting Team in the CAA. Case in point: an incredible comeback at home to beat Charleston (21-2 at the time) on Feb. 2 was sandwiched between losses to Elon (2-19) and Monmouth (3-20).
Fortunately for Drexel, they’ll be at the Daskalakis Athletic Center for this one, where they’ve won eight straight games and 11 of 13 overall this season. Away from home, they’re 4-10 with four losses to teams below No. 300 in the KenPom rankings.
Williams, last season’s CAA Defensive Player of the Year and a third-team All-CAA pick, will be adding more hardware to the collection in a few weeks. Not only is he an elite rim protector and one of the best defensive rebounders in the nation, but Williams has upped his offensive output this season.
Overall, Drexel hangs its hat on defense and Coach Zach Spiker offered up a B- grade as a midterm grade for his team earlier this week.
Something to Build On
UNCW had fantastic energy on Saturday, particularly on the defensive end, where it forced a season-high 19 turnovers that turned into 16 points on the offensive end.
It was nice to see the Seahawks flying around and causing havoc, but when the Huskies weren’t throwing it around the yard, they made about half their shots — particularly in the paint, where they won the scoring battle 34-32.
That might bode well for tonight, as the Dragons have struggled mightily against fullcourt pressure this season — especially the press UNCW uses to slow down an offense, but not necessarily force turnovers.
According to Synergy Sports, when Drexel is pressed and then force to run halfcourt offense, the Dragons rank in the 5th percentile nationally, scoring .67 points per possession.
When the Dragons are able to beat a press and turn it into transition offense, they’re far more effective, scoring 1.00 PPP — but that’s a tiny sample size.
Of the 139 possessions Drexel has been pressed, they’ve only managed 13 transition opportunities, so for UNCW, responsible pressure will be the priority.
Target on his Back
After Maleeck Harden-Hayes seemingly carried the UNCW offense for a few weeks, he became a target.
After the Northeastern game, UNCW coach Takayo Siddle mentioned that opponents have taken aim at Harden-Hayes in their scouting report, and they’ve thrown some new defensive wrinkles his way.
That’s resulted in Harden-Hayes scoring a total of 13 points on just 13 field goal attempts over the past three games — a long way from his average of 17.5 points over the four games preceding this run.
It’s not unexpected for this sort of thing to happen during a season. We saw it early, when Shykeim Phillips was attracting attention from the opposing team’s best perimeter defenders for the first time, then a couple of weeks back, Trazarien White was having everything thrown at him in the paint.
The lack of offensive production hasn’t stopped Harden-Hayes from contributing, however, as his length and athleticism are still making a difference on defense. Also, his ability to stretch the defense from the perimeter means opponents aren’t straying too far, which means more space in the paint.
UNCW needs the best version of Harden-Hayes to be the best version of itself, so don’t be surprised to see a few sets go his way early tonight.
When he gets going again, he’s such a unique talent that opponents are going to have to pick their poison on mismatches with Harden-Hayes and White.
Confidence Builder
I’ve never read ‘Do Hard Things’ but I think it’s generally a good sentiment, and one that is especially applicable for this team tonight.
This game is going to be an absolute slugfest — the kind you see between conference rivals in February, when seniors are running out of time to play meaningful basketball and younger guys are realizing how hard you have to play at this level.
Drexel is a program that prides itself on toughness and physicality, and clearly, UNCW hangs its hat on those things, too. Nothing is coming easy.
We’ve seen a few versions of the Seahawks this season — the ultra-confident offensive juggernaut that beat Jacksonville into oblivion, and a team that out-toughed one of the scrappiest teams in the nation in North Texas.
There’s also the version of the Seahawks that no-showed at Hofstra and Charleston, and one that just couldn’t get out of its own way vs. William & Mary.
It’s easy to draw a correlation between confidence, energy and toughness in all of those — much more so than the specifics of the gameplan.
That’s why tonight represents a golden opportunity for this team, as the analytics and the gambling guys seem to believe Drexel is the tougher team. It’s going to take attention to detail like boxing out, setting great screens and trading a good shot for a great one — all of the hard things about winning basketball games.
There’s no better way for the Seahawks to set the tone for the next month than challenging themselves to do the hard thing — a hard thing that other good teams have failed to finish lately.
“Great faith is the product of great fights. Great testimonies are the outcome of great tests. Great triumphs can only come out of great trials.”
A Note on Fouls
After sitting through another abomination of an officiating performance on Saturday, I started compiling some data to see if perception was matching up with realty regarding the number of fouls that are being called.
To add some context to the numbers below, the guys considered among the best refs in college hoops (Roger Ayers, Ron Groover, etc.) and their crews verage in the range of 32-34 fouls per game.
Still adding variables to determine the how and why of this all, but the early answers? It’s complicated:
Around the CAA
Delaware at Towson, 7 p.m. (FloSports)
The Blue Hens could repay us for the trauma they caused in March by giving the Tigers another loss and helping solidify our hold on third place.
Charleston at Elon, 7 p.m. (FloSports)
The Phoenix has shown signs of life lately, winning five of six, but the good vibes will be short-lived on Thursday night. The Cougars have seemingly put it back in gear after their two-game hiccup, winning four straight by an average margin of 24.5 points.
Hampton at Hofstra, 7 p.m. (FloSports)
The Pride has won eight straight and 12 of its past 13 outings. While this feels like a chance for Aaron Estrada to drop 35 points, there’s a high probability he’ll be sitting for the final 10 minutes.
Monmouth at Northeastern, 7 p.m. (FloSports)
If our game is going to be a slugfest, this one will be something akin to a WWF Hardcore Championship match. The Hawks have won five of six and appear destined to avoid the play-in game. No one wants to see these guys in D.C.
William & Mary at Stony Brook, 7 p.m. (FloSports)
Do not watch this game.