Seahawks Get Back to Work vs. A&T
How will the seven-day break change the UNCW offense?
UNCW (17-6, 7-3 CAA)
vs. N.C. A&T (11-13, 6-5 CAA)
7 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloHoops | Listen | Stats
Everyone needs a vacation, right?
It’s hard to imagine the past seven days have been very relaxing for the Seahawks, but it did give them a chance to do get back to the work on themselves and focus on the process of being a great basketball team without having to think about the results for a little bit.
Here’s what to watch for this evening as the Seahawks begin their sprint down the home stretch vs. N.C. A&T at Trask Coliseum.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 153 overall; No. 233 offense, No. 103 defense.
KenPom rankings for A&T: No. 279 overall; No. 251 offense, No. 290 defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 74, A&T 64 (81 percent chance of victory).
Meet the Aggies
Personnel: G Kam Woods 18.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists; F Marcus Watson 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds; G Demetric Horton 11.4 points, 5 rebounds, 44.9 3FG%; F Duncan Powell 6.5 points, 5 rebounds; F Austin Johnson 6.2 points; G Love Bettis 3.8 points, 39.5 3FG%
Woods is every bit as good as advertised, capable of scoring at all three levels. Watson, meanwhile, is something of a human highlight reel. The Aggies are a tough, physical team, but they struggle to force turnovers (345th nationally) and don’t generate much on the boards.
When Last We Met…
Jan. 7: UNCW 66, A&T 61
The first of Maleeck Harden-Hayes’ nuclear performances in January, finishing with 28 points (officially, the box score was corrected to give him another 3-pointer) as the Seahawks got their 13th straight win.
UNCW built a 51-36 lead, but things took a turn as the offense stalled and the Aggies got as close as 57-56 with about two minutes remaining.
Woods had some nice finishes in the lane, but the real trouble came when he got loose on the perimeter, hitting 6 of 9 attempts from beyond the arc en route to 24 points.
Editor’s Note
Thanks for hanging around while I took my little break from writing! I had a long and mentally taxing work project to finish by Jan. 31. My brain is thankfully back to maximum operation (not a high bar, to be fair) and I’m ready to finish this season strong!
What’s up with the Offense?
On the morning of Jan. 11, UNCW’s offense ranked No. 112 in the nation with an efficiency number of 105.2.
Now, less than a month later, the Seahawks’ attack has dropped all the way to No. 231, with an efficiency rating of 102.4.
Some of the details differ from game-to-game, but the basis lies in opponents packing the paint and taking away the high-percentage shots the Seahawks had been getting at-will.
Check out the shot charts for the Seahawks, with the 13-game winning streak charts on top, and the past six games below.
Left side is the standard shot chart, and on the right, the breakdown on where UNCW is getting its shots from.
During the winning streak UNCW’s got 47 percent of its shots at close range, including 31.1 percent at the rim.
Lately, the Hawks have only gotten 43.3 percent of shots at close range, but only 23 percent of those have been considered “at-rim.”
That might not sound like a big difference, but it breaks down to 16.7 “at-rim” shots per game then, versus 11.5 recently. How different do the past few weeks look with five more layups or dunks every game? We might be talking about a team with one CAA loss.
Rather than moving to the mid-range, those shots have gone out beyond the arc, where UNCW’s 3-point shooting rate has jumped from 33.6 percent to 39.4.
They’ve missed some quality looks, but because of the lack of interior touches, they’ve also hoisted a few bad ones. Either way, the 3-point percentage has dropped from 37.4 percent to 28.4 at the worst possible time.
Then, there’s the other stuff.
Confidence is a hell of a drug, and it doesn’t look like there’s very much of it on the offensive end right now.
The best version of this offense is the one fearlessly driving right into the heart of a defense, flying into the lane or uncorking a kick-out three immediately. Lately, there’s a little more hesitation and uncertainty.
Can it be Fixed?
These have a school record winning-streak under their belts and came up one bucket short against the nation’s mid-major darling.
It’s really as simple as making the right pass, a little more quickly out of the post. It’s Rolling a little harder out of a screen. Catching and shooting with confidence when you’re open. Relax and make the easy play instead of the highlight.
Seven days is a world of time in a college basketball season, so UNCW coach Takayo Siddle and his staff have had ample time to get together and find a solution. Don’t expect wholesale system changes, but maybe a few wrinkles:
The easiest offensive fix comes on defense, where the Seahawks have been spectacular lately. We might see even more trapping/pressing with the goal of creating turnovers and a few more easy buckets.
Siddle has already increased the number of offensive sets this team runs, and it would make sense that we could see even more, with an emphasis on creating post touches for Amari Kelly, Trazarien White, Nick Farrar and Harden-Hayes.
Patience! Remember White’s offensive masterpiece against Elon? That was all because of his patience after catching the ball near the free throw line. If he had a shot on the catch, he took it. If not, he processed and went to work.
More emphasis on the roll man. The Seahawks run a good bit of pick & roll, but according to Synergy, the handler has kept the ball 270 times (0.74 points per possession) while hitting the roll man 66 times, getting 1.13 PPP.
The Seahawks are playing defense at a CAA championship level, so even a little bit of offensive improvement is going to put them in a great spot when it counts.
The Medical Report
Injuries and illness are starting to pile up for the Seahawks, with Jamahri Harvey the latest to join the report after a sprained ankle vs. Monmouth.
After that game, Siddle said it was likely Harvey would miss some time, joining Noah Ross (foot) on the bench.
It’s unclear exactly what Shykeim Phillips is dealing with, but a lingering illness has kept him out of a couple of games while limiting his energy in others.
Hopefully, this weeklong break got the Hawks healed up, rested and a step closer to the depth they used to wear out opponents earlier this season.
Rebuilding Excitement
Siddle and the marketing department made a noticeable effort to reach students after last week’s pitiful turnout vs. Monmouth.
Trask has been excellent this season, and for a team that could use a little bit of a boost right now, it was pretty disappointing to see so many folks had abandoned the team after a couple of losses. (Kansas lost three straight and you don’t see that shit happening at Allen Fieldhouse!)
Hopefully those efforts and tonight’s Navy Out get the bleachers packed again and provide a boost as the Seahawks get in gear for the stretch run.