UNCW set to meet William & Mary in nationally-televised matchup

UNCW (14-4, 4-1 CAA) vs.
William & Mary (7-10, 2-2 CAA)

5 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | CBS Sports Net | Listen | Stats

The end of one winning streak is the beginning of another.

That will be the mindset of the Seahawks on Saturday night, as they look to turn the page on an epic battle with Charleston that, somehow, lived up to the hype as one of the most anticipated games in Trask Coliseum’s history.

Now, they’ll meet a middling William & Mary team poised to take advantage if UNCW hasn’t yet moved on from the loss.

Here’s what to watch for on Saturday night.

A Quick Word on Charleston…

Didn’t get to write that night because I pulled into the driveway at 12:45 a.m., but the long drive gave me plenty of time to think through the game and the accompanying emotions.

Disappointment was brief and limited to feeling it for the guys, who put together one hell of a second half and deserved to win the game.

More than anything, I was proud — proud of the way the Seahawks left every ounce on the floor and proud of the way our community came together to show the world what UNCW Basketball is all about.

For a few hours on Wednesday night, Wilmington was the envy of the college hoops world. Thousands of people saw Trask for the first time via Twitter, where Teal Nation delivered the big-game atmosphere these two teams deserved.

UNCW didn’t get a lot of the 50-50 balls we’re used to winning, and while some of that can feel like bad luck, a lot of it was Charleston. The Cougars are one of the few teams willing to play as hard as the Seahawks for 40 minutes, and the game reflected that.

We’ve gotten a little spoiled when it comes to finishing games.

For the past several years, we’ve seen Jaylen Sims, Shykeim Phillips, Mike Okauru and Trazarien White (and several other guys) get the big bucket in crunch-time. KenPom calls it “luck,” but “luck” doesn’t happen as often as UNCW has made all the right plays in the final minutes of a game.

UNCW coach Takayo Siddle — 38-8 in his last 46 games as head coach, by the way — put the ball in the hands of his toughest player and best one-on-one scorer, and this time around, it didn’t work. Such is life. Phillips is an absolute warrior, and a kid I absolutely trust to get us a tough bucket. No doubt he’ll deliver a victory for the Seahawks between now and March.

Congrats to Charleston on an incredible win. Few teams can take that punch in Trask and get off the mat to win the game. The fanbases share a number of similarities, and seemingly, hold a mutual respect for one another. The social media conversation has usually been intelligent, with a little bit of friendly banter mixed in.

If the basketball gods are fair, we’ll be meeting up twice more this season.

That’s it for Charleston. Onward to the Tribe.

UNCW Game Notes | William & Mary Game Notes

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 113 overall; No. 118 offense, No. 118 defense.

KenPom rankings for W&M: No. 293 overall; No. 262 offense, No. 310 defense.

KenPom forecast: UNCW 73, W&M 60 (88 percent chance of victory).

Meet the Tribe

Personnel: G Anders Nelson 11.2 points, 4.7 assists, 44.4 3FG%; G Gabe Dorsey 10.8 points, 45.2 3FG%; F Ben Wight 10.4 points, 4.8 rebounds; F Noah Collier 9.5 points, 8. 8 rebounds; G Chris Mullins 6.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals.

The W&M team that arrives in Trask on Saturday bears little resemblance to the one we saw give the Hawks a scare last season, as the Tribe completely retooled the roster via the transfer portal.

W&M has already exceeded last season’s win total (5) thanks to a massive leap on offense. That doesn’t mean the Tribe attack is particularly good, but it’s no longer one of the worst teams in the nation in turnover rate and effective field goal percentage.

Much of the surge can be credited for hot 3-point shooting, where the Tribe ranks 62nd nationally at 36.5 percent.

Dorsey, a transfer from Vanderbilt, is hitting 53.3 percent of his 3-point attempts in CAA play, while Nelson — The Guy for W&M — is hitting 42.9 percent in league play.

Any path for a Tribe upset begins behind the arc on Saturday night.

This is About UNCW

Obviously, the Seahawks will have a tailored gameplan for attacking the Tribe’s strength, but truly, this game is all about UNCW being UNCW against a faceless opponent.

The first order of business is not allowing Wednesday’s loss to beat them for a second time.

It’s only right that the Seahawks would be dealing with some emotional and physical exhaustion after the week they’ve had, but that can’t be a factor on Saturday.

There’s nothing to prove and nothing special this team needs to do to beat anyone in the conference. Come out with energy, toughness, and take care of the details, and everything else will fall into place.

No reason to believe the Seahawks won’t do any of those things with the consistency they’ve shown since Dec. 2021, but human nature is such that you can’t expect a team to maintain the same emotional edge that it had against a ranked opponent.

Naturally, the crowd won’t quite be at the same level we saw in the previous game, but hopefully, the students and community will be able to inject a little more energy than we might see against a below-.500 opponent.

Jamarii’s Jump?

No player has been on both ends of the spectrum as much as Jamarii Thomas this season.

Over a three-game stretch in December, he scored a total of three points in 22 minutes.

Over his past four games, he’s averaging 12 points and 3.8 assists while playing 22.5 minutes per game.

In addition to his 16 points vs. Charleston on Wednesday night, Thomas brought the type of emotional, scrappy play that makes him the absolute best version of himself. On a night the Seahawks needed rebounding from everyone, he grabbed five — including a few among the giants.

That performance, against that opponent, could represent another big step for a kid with all the potential in the world. It’s obvious any time he has the ball in his hands that he has everything it takes to be an elite point guard in this league.

If that version of Thomas shows up Saturday — or any other night — the Seahawks are going to be awfully tough to beat.

Amari Unstoppable

The only guys stopping Amari Kelly lately are wearing striped shirts.

UNCW’s senior big man has four straight double-figure scoring performances averaging 12 points on 18 of 27 shooting from the field. It’s easily the longest stretch of offensive success in his career, and it makes sense.

When Kelly catches the ball on the block, he looks incredibly confident in whatever’s coming, whether that’s a post move to finish at the basket or kicking out to an open shooter.

According to Synergy, Kelly has 42 points on 37 post-ups this season, putting his 1.14 points per possession in the 91st percentile nationally.

Include the 15 times he’s passed out of a post-up opportunity, and UNCW is averaging 1.12 PPP on those plays. In short, good things happen when he catches the ball down there.

Unfortunately for the Seahawks, foul trouble has sent Kelly to the bench early in the past two games and several times throughout the season, fouling out of two games and picking up four fouls in six more.

The best version of UNCW is the one with Kelly on the floor, and given his production, he has the potential to be an All-CAA player if he can get 25-30 minutes a night.

A Day for Depth

This game will be the second of a three-game, six-day stretch that will end with Elon coming into Wilmington on Monday night.

Where this scenario has been negative for UNCW in the past few years, the Seahawks are uniquely equipped to handle a busy stretch like this one.

This feels like a game where someone in the supporting cast will put up big numbers, like the random offensive explosions we saw from Nick Farrar and Nolan Hodge earlier this season.

It certainly makes sense that we’d see a little more of those two than usual today, and maybe even a little of Eric Van Der Heijden with an opportunity to build some confidence.

Tip-Ins

• Phillips averaged 21 points in two matchups with the Tribe last season, shooting 15/21 from the field and making all 13 of his free throw attempts.

• The Seahawks made 25 of 52 3-point attempts vs. W&M last season, including a 17/30 performance in Williamsburg.

• UNCW is 47-32 all-time vs. W&M, including a 25-13 mark at Trask Coliseum.

• Trazarien White has scored 15 points or more in eight of the past nine games.

• Maleeck Harden-Hayes has made 17 of 31 3-point attempts over the past nine games.