Streaks, CAA Lead on the Line as UNCW and Charleston Clash
The Cougars and Seahawks have combined to win 28 straight games
UNCW (14-3, 4-0) vs.
No. 22 Charleston (16-1, 4-0)
7 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloHoops | Listen | Stats
Never — in its 45-year history — has a CAA team ranked in the AP Top 25 walked into Trask Coliseum to meet the Seahawks.
That changes on Wednesday night as No. 22 Charleston rides a 15-game winning streak into Wilmington for one of the most anticipated matchups in the history of UNCW basketball for a 7 p.m. tipoff on FloSports.
Along with the nation’s longest winning streak, the winner will emerge with a key victory in the conference title race and a little goodwill with a national college hoops media that has turned its attention to a rare mid-major matchup featuring teams that haven’t lost since early November.
If last season’s 12-round slugfests between the Cougars and Hawks are any indication, casual fans will be in for a treat, while the diehards can expect pacing, heart palpitations and wondering why, exactly, we allow 19-year olds playing basketball to get us this worked up.
Here’s what we’ll be watching as UNCW looks to extend its school-record 13-game winning streak…
UNCW Game Notes | Charleston Game Notes
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 111 overall; No. 115 offense, No. 117 defense.
KenPom rankings for Charleston: No. 83 overall; No. 77 offense, No. 97 defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 72, Charleston 71 (53 percent chance of victory).
Meet the Cougars
Personnel: G Dalton Bolon 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds; G Ryan Larson 11.1 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 37.7 3FG%; G Pat Robinson III 10.6 points, 50.8 FG%; G Reyne Smith 10.6 points; F Ante Brzovic 10.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 39.5 3FG%; F Ben Burnham 7.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 37.8 3FG%; F Raekwon Horton 6.4 points, 3.7 rebounds; G Jaylon Scott 4.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3 assists 1.2 steals; F Babacar Faye 5.5 points, 5.5 rebounds.
Notable wins: 11/20 vs. Virginia Tech, 11/23 vs. Kent State, 11/14 vs. Richmond, 12/31 vs. Towson, 11/18 vs. Colorado State, 11/17 vs. Davidson.
That’s a long list … of personnel and wins.
Charleston’s roster approach isn’t all that different from UNCW’s: get a bunch of tough, interchangeable perimeter players, rotate 8-10 of them, then ride that night’s hot hand.
The main difference lies in the pace, as the Cougars want to play fast (37th in tempo) and put up (31.4 attempts per game) a ton of threes, getting 35.4 percent of their points (68th) from beyond the arc.
Coach Pat Kelsey also sends his squad to the offensive glass with reckless abandon, generally putting four guys in there. It’s working quite nicely this season as the Cougars rank 28th nationally in offensive rebounding rate (34.8 percent), while only allowing opponents to get 25.7 percent of their misses on the offensive boards (69th nationally).
Bolon is The Guy for Charleston, both on the stat sheet and in spirit, as his “Psycho D” persona sets the emotional tone. Based on the numbers above, it’s clear Brzovic, Larson and Burnham can shoot it from deep. Although Smith isn’t shooting as high a percentage as the others, he’s probably the most dangerous shooter on the team and has knocked down more than five 3-pointers on four occasions this season.
Strength vs. Strength
At several points tonight, Charleston will have barely gotten into its offense when a Cougar catches the ball and takes a lightning-quick 3-point attempt in a completely unexpected spot. They’ll make a few, of them too.
They’re hitting 9.7 per game, and given their shot volume, they’re going to get their fair share — wouldn’t matter if they’re playing the ‘85 Bears.
Luckily, one of the tenets of UNCW’s defensive success is guarding the 3-point line, with opponents shooting just 30.9 percent from beyond the arc this season — a figure that ranks 66th nationally. During the winning streak, the Seahawks are holding opponents to 27.8 percent from 3-point range.
One of the big reasons for that is the Seahawks’ general approach of guarding the post straight-up, and thus, reducing the possibility of open shooters on kickouts.
The real concern for UNCW — as it has been all season — is getting its defensive assignments in transition.
A few times a game, it seems opponents slip someone behind the defense, or a shooter gets loose on the wing.
That would be a killer tonight, as according to Synergy, Charleston is hitting 36.8 percent of its transition 3-point attempts. The Cougars are getting about 6.5 of those attempts per game this season.
Something’s got to give for one of these teams on the 3-point front, and it’s imperative for the Seahawks not to help out with defensive lapses.
UNCW coach Takayo Siddle pointed out that Charleston’s strengths are among the most challenging aspects of defending.
“That’s the most uncomfortable and the toughest thing to do defensively, and they do that at a high level,” he said. “Then, guarding the 3-point line; the way they get their threes off is something that we have to focus in on — they make 10 a game.”
Another Strength vs. Strength?
Both UNCW and Charleston are relatively responsible with the ball on offense in terms of turnover rate, and defensively, both will force opponents into some mistakes.
The Seahawks are certainly a little more aggressive on the defensive end, using traps and presses to force the action, while Charleston is strictly devoted to playing halfcourt man-to-man defense. According to Synergy, the Cougars have pressed or played zone on exactly 12 possessions this season, meaning it’s highly unlikely we’ll see anything out of the ordinary.
These are both good defensive teams, albeit in different ways.
UNCW will look to use its fullcourt defensively looks to slow down the potent Charleston attack, get them off schedule once they get across halfcourt and force some turnovers.
The Cougars could turn that on its head by taking care of the ball, beating the Seahawks down the floor and using the aggressiveness against them to get easy buckets.
Yet again, something’s got to give.
Either Charleston will be forced into a slower game than it would like because UNCW is disrupting its uptempo offense, or the Seahawks will have to back off their pressure because the Cougars are scoring easy buckets in transition.
It’ll be a fun chess match, and one that will go a long way in deciding the game.
Biggest Game Since…
Obviously, it wasn’t quite to this magnitude, but last February’s matchup with Towson had a similar feel, with CBS Sports Network broadcasting the game from a sold-out Trask.
The Seahawks came out too fired up, made uncharacteristic mistakes and watched the Tigers silence a rowdy crowd and race to a 79-55 victory.
Five Seahawks that played in that game will be in the lineup for UNCW on Wednesday night, and they’ll be leaning on that experience for handling the spotlight.
It was certainly a focus of Siddle’s, saying that his team’s mentality was the most important factor in the game.
“Making sure, mentally, we’re in the right place,” he said. “Making sure our approach is the right approach, and then, can we be emotionally mature enough to not get out of character and execute our gameplan?”
While that loss to Towson last season cost the Seahawks an outright regular-season championship, it might be the difference in securing one this season.
Shy Time
Shykeim Phillips seems to really enjoy playing against Charleston, going 5-0 in his career while averaging 13.6 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists while shooting 27 of 51 (52.9 percent) from the field.
In addition to battling an illness in December, Phillips’ offensive role has varied this season. Sometimes, the Hawks simply don’t need him to takeover as he often did last season.
What hasn’t wavered, however, is him setting the tone for UNCW with his toughness and perimeter defense.
Phillips looked healthy on Saturday in the win over N.C. A&T, putting together a highlight reel of ridiculous finishes on his way to 14 points.
The Seahawks need guards to rebound in this one, and given his recent history against the Cougars, it seems this game is tailor-made for Phillips to provide the toughness, defense and crafty finishes only he can provide.
Take it all in
The cycles of mid-major basketball can result in fleeting moments.
Gonzaga is the exception — not the rule — in our world, where success attracts interested high-major programs with deeper pockets.
Take a moment in Trask on Wednesday night to appreciate the student section.
Appreciate every seat in the upper bowl being filled again — just like the Brett Blizzard (or T.J. Carter or Denzel Ingram) days.
Appreciate the product on the court, with two of the premier young coaches in college basketball leading teams that epitomize the grit it takes to succeed at this level.
Appreciate Dick Vitale tweeting about the game, and other members of the national media giving the Hawks and Cougs some love.
Then, remember what it took to get here — where we were a few years ago, and even during the COVID season when games were played in empty arenas.
We’re living an incredible moment in history for these programs, so make the best of it — we’ve seen just how quickly it can disappear.
And no matter what happens tonight, we’re looking at two teams that can win several games in March. How often can we say that?
Tip-Ins
Maleeck Harden-Hayes is averaging 14.3 points in CAA matchups, and he now leads the Seahawks’ rotation players in 3-point percentage at 42.9.
Harden-Hayes and Trazarien White are shooting 57.1 percent overall in CAA play — good for second-best in the league.
The Seahawks lead the CAA at 61 of 75 (81.3 percent) at the free throw line.
This marks the fourth time an opponent ranked in the AP Top 25 has visited Trask. (No. 17 Wake Forest, 1977; No. 21 Charlotte, 1992; No. 9 North Carolina, 2019).
The Cougars are averaging 14.5 offensive rebounds in CAA play, while UNCW is grabbing 11.3.
Charleston leads the CAA in scoring average at 83 points, while UNCW is allowing 61.8 points.
Just one player on either team (White) ranks among the top 25 for minutes average in CAA games. There will be depth!