Devastating defeat at Jacksonville changed the Seahawks’ season

UNCW (7-3) vs. Jacksonville (5-2)

4 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloHoops | Listen | Stats

It’s a day that will live in infamy.

Say “Jacksonville Game” to anyone who knows UNCW hoops, and you’re not just referencing a seemingly random nonconference matchup against a fellow mid-major.

Of all the lows the program had experienced in recent years, the 77-48 destruction that Jacksonville delivered on Dec. 11, 2021 somehow (stupidly!) felt worse than the 20-loss seasons preceding it.

The 2021-22 Seahawks weren’t deep, but they didn’t lack for talent at the top of the roster. Despite injuries and illness, they’d shown some promise in November before delivering that clunker — the final in a three-game losing streak.

Now, almost one year to the date, that lifeless performance represents a turning point for Seahawk basketball — you gotta hit rock bottom before you know which direction to go.

“After Jacksonville, we kind of all came together,” UNCW senior Amari Kelly said in October. “We had a team meeting, kind of laid it all out. I think that was the moment that changed everything.”

Some spoke up more than others in that meeting — Jaylen Sims, Mike Okauru and the other seniors — but everyone had input in what the team needed to do to get the program back on track.

“Everyone kind of just had to drop their ego, and whatever your role was, try to accept your role and do it to the best of your ability,” Kelly said. “We kind of all just took the approach that it’s us versus everybody, and we’ve got to stick together through it all. I think that’s what carried us through the season, to be honest.”

And it’s still carrying them.

UNCW immediately won 12 straight games, won a share of the CAA regular-season title and came up just short of a CAA Tournament championship. Overall, the Seahawks are 31-7 since losing to Jacksonville, including winning the CBI and Baha Mar Nassau Championship.

Now, 364 days later, the Dolphins return the favor with a trip to Trask Coliseum for what will be one of the best matchups in college basketball on Saturday.

Here’s what to watch for as UNCW puts its six-game winning streak on the line.

UNCW Game Notes | Jacksonville Game Notes

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 150 overall; No. 188 offense, No. 126 defense.

KenPom rankings for JU: No. 137 overall; No. 167 offense, No. 111 defense.

KenPom forecast: UNCW 62, Jacksonville 60 (58 percent chance of victory).

About the Dolphins

Personnel: G Kevion Nolan (14.3 points, 4.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 40% 3FG), F Mike Marsh (13.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 59.3% FG), G Jordan Davis (8.6 points, 6.7 rebounds), F Omar Payne (8.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 65.4% FG), G Dylan O’Hearn (8.0 points), G Gyasi Powell (7.1 points, 50% 3FG).

After coming up just a few points short of an Atlantic Sun championship in March, Jacksonville is even better this season.

They’ll hang their hat on a tough pack-line defense that clogs the middle and dares opponents to beat them over the top, slowing the game down and forcing long possessions.

Offensively, the Dolphins do a great job of moving the ball to create scoring, but have struggled with turnovers this season vs. Division I competition, giving it up on 23.8 percent of possessions (353rd nationally.)

Nolan, a first-team All-ASUN guard, is the The Guy. Equally adept as a scorer or passer, he’ll take — and make — his share of 3-point attempts, but he’s not strictly a shooter. At 6-11, 240 pounds, Marsh is an efficient scorer around the basket who attacks the offensive boards.

Notable Results for the Dolphins

Wins: Tuesday at VCU (73-62); Nov. 23 at Campbell (64-43).
Losses: Nov. 7 at Duke (71-44); Nov. 30 at UAB (80-61).

Packing the Lane

Jacksonville’s pack-line defensive approach gave VCU a hard time in Richmond, as the Rams made just 5 of 28 3-point attempts.

Luckily for the Seahawks, they’ve already seen this philosophy twice in the past couple of weeks. North Texas — one of the nation’s top defensive teams — uses some pack-line principles in their no-middle defense, while Coastal Carolina threw everyone in the lane and allowed UNCW to shoot it from deep.

Those experiences will be incredibly valuable, given the frustration that comes with an opponent playing this style of defense.

It’s going to be a tough, hard-fought game that will most likely have some serious offensive lulls.

Most importantly for UNCW, that means remaining committed to creating those paint touches that fuel the offense and not settling for the long 3-point looks the Dolphins want to bait them into.

However, in those two games, the Seahawks did prove they can take advantage of good looks from deep, hitting 17 of 46 3-point attempts.

Exploring Combos

Lineups are always a favorite discussion, and only recently did Siddle begin paring down his rotation after exploring all sorts of looks for the Seahawks.

During the winning streak, 39 different combinations have played at least two minutes together. Of that bunch, only four have played 10 minutes or more.

This one, consisting of Kelly, Maleeck Harden-Hayes, Trazarien White, Donovan Newby and Jamarii Thomas, is causing absolute defensive havoc.

In just over 10 minutes together, that lineup is forcing turnovers on 30.9 percent of possessions and limiting opponents to 45.8 points per 100 possessions. As a limited-time, short-burst lineup, this is a heck of a fun one to watch.

Another one, which has only gotten a tiny bit of run is the grouping of Newby, Harden-Hayes, White, Shykeim Phillips and Jamahri Harvey.

An ultra-fast, small lineup, this one has an absurd offensive rating of 193.4, but struggles with rebounding.

Rising to the Challenge

Jacksonville is, by a wide margin, the best team the Seahawks have welcomed to Trask Coliseum this season.

It’s tough for mid-majors to find quality home games, and the Dolphins represent the sixth-best nonconference opponent to play in Wilmington since the 2014-15 season.

Thanks to all of the challenging road games UNCW has played to this point, its schedule is currently ranked among the nation’s best.

Once the Seahawks get into CAA play, the overall rating will fall a bit. That’s natural when mixing in the teams near the bottom of the league.

Even as losses, the games vs. UConn (KenPom No. 2), North Carolina (24), Oklahoma (33) help immensely. The wins over Missouri State (142), Vermont (155) and North Texas (67) might become even more valuable as those teams compete near the top of their conferences.

Overall, the best nonconference home games UNCW has played in recent years:

No. 67 East Tennessee State (2016)
No. 84 North Carolina (2019)
No. 85 Davidson (2018)
No. 95 Furman (2017)
No. 96 Stanford (2018)
No. 137 Jacksonville (2022)

A Little More Nostalgia

While we’re on the topic, it’s interesting to look back at the quotes from UNCW coach Takayo Siddle from the radio show that followed the Jacksonville game last season.

Seems he had a pretty good read on what was coming:

“We’re just going to throw this one in the trash and still believe in this team at a high level and know that we’re going to win a lot of games. We’re going to get this fixed in a hurry.”