UNCW faces strong mid-major field in Nassau tournament

UNCW (2-3) vs. Missouri State (2-1)

2:30 p.m. | Baha Mar Convention Center | FloHoops | Listen | Stats

UNCW Notes | Missouri State Notes | Tournament Capsules

It took two weeks and an international flight, but finally, we might meet the real 2022-23 Seahawks.

We’ve had glimpses at what could be an exceptionally good basketball team — one that smothers opponents on the press, attacks from the inside-out and has 10 guys capable of getting buckets on any given night.

There were also the not-so-fun moments, when the Seahawks struggled to move the ball, gave up open looks on the perimeter and allowed easy transition buckets.

Of course, there’s important context to consider: UNCW has already played the three best teams it will face all season in North Carolina, Oklahoma and UConn, along with two Division II opponents in Allen and Mount Olive.

Finally, we’ll see the Seahawks take on a fellow mid-major on Friday afternoon, meeting an excellent Missouri State squad in the first round of the Baha Mar Hoops Nassau Championship.

Here’s what to watch for in the opener, and beyond.

Meet the Bears

Relevant Results: Beat Middle Tennessee 75-51; lost at BYU 66-64.

MSU has won 25 games in the Missouri Valley Conference over the past two seasons, which is no easy feat.

Chosen fourth in the preseason poll, the Bears have gotten a major boost from transfer guard Chance Moore (18.3 points, 7 rebounds), a former top-100 recruit who spent last season at Arkansas. Hitting 62.5 percent of his field goal attempts, Moore is scoring all over the floor, including converting 9 of 15 3-point attempts.

Coach Dana Ford has seen his program improve offensively every year, rising to No. 23 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings last season. It’s an attack built on balance and efficiency — creating and knocking down good shots all over the floor without an over-reliance on their high 3-point percentage.

Expect to also see plenty of G Alston Mason (11.7 PPG, 50% 3p), F Donovan Clay (9 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Bryan Trimble (8.3 PPG, 36.8% 3p).

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 224 overall; No. 228 offense, No. 222 defense.

KenPom rankings for MSU: No. 101 overall; No. 97 offense, No. 129 defense.

KenPom forecast: MSU 69, UNCW 62 (27 percent chance of victory)

Finding Their Level

So far, the most obvious contrast for UNCW has come on the offensive end, with the Seahawks averaging 53 points against the high-major teams while hanging 95.3 points against the Division II opponents (including the exhibition vs. Emory & Henry).

Now, the shot charts for the three losses.

The first chart illustrates UNCW’s shooting percentages on the left, and on the right, it shows the location and frequency of those shots.

The Seahawks’ offensive identity is built on spreading the floor, attacking the paint and creating opportunities from there — either finishing at the bucket or kicking out to shooters who have extra space, thanks to a collapsing defense.

As it turns out, UNC and UConn have NBA-quality guards AND big men to throw a wrench into that plan. Coach Porter Moser has been putting together Top 25 defenses for a while now, and appears to have another one at Oklahoma, currently ranking 29th nationally in efficiency.

Not only did those three teams largely keep UNCW from getting the paint touches it needs to succeed, but once the Seahawks got there, they weren’t nearly as successful as usual.

The layups and stop-and-pop looks we’re used to seeing in the lane became mid-range jumpers or off-balance runners, averaging four assists.

Now, the same concept below, with the shooting percentages and locations in the three victories vs. Division II opponents.

Like clockwork, UNCW moved the ball, attacked the paint and created one easy look after another, averaging 18.3 assists per game.

The question is, which shot chart is most likely to resemble the one we see for UNCW today — and going forward — against fellow mid-major opponents?

It’s most likely somewhere in the middle, and the closer to the second chart, the more likely the Seahawks are to succeed.

On Guard

One guy who has no problem breaking into the heart of any defense is Shykeim Phillips, who seemed to find his rhythm at UConn before sitting against UMO due to an apparent illness.

Phillips’ ability to create those touches and finish in the paint is key to any sustained success for UNCW this season, but if he’s still recovering, it appears the Seahawks might be able to get by in a pinch.

So far this season, seven of UNCW’s perimeter players have posted double-figure scoring performances, including breakout performances from Nick Farrar (18 points, 8 rebounds) and Nolan Hodge (15 points, 10 rebounds) in the win over UMO.

Both players, who dealt with preseason injuries, have similar abilities to create mismatches against smaller guards in the paint, or by beating bigger defenders on the perimeter.

Regardless of Phillips’ availability, it appears both players are plenty capable of stepping in to give the Seahawks an efficient offensive boost, whether it’s a quick cameo or big minutes.

On the Boards

In addition to their offensive efficiency Monday, Farrar and Hodge also helped UNCW continue a trend of strong rebounding performances.

The Seahawks have completely dominated the DII opponents, edged UNC on its home floor, hung with UConn and lost by a solid margin at Oklahoma.

While Amari Kelly has been excellent on the boards, averaging 5.2 in 15.4 minutes per game, it’s been a team effort up and down the roster, with eight players averaging at least three.

Kelly currently ranks 10th nationally in individual offensive rebounding rate, grabbing 19.9 percent when he’s on the floor.

Without even considering the dominance vs. lower-division opponents, UNCW ranks 115th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 118th in defensive rebounding rate — an incredible performance considering the quality of those three opponents.

The Seahawks seem to have an advantage over on the glass today, as the Bears currently rank No. 242 (offense) and No. 252 (defensive).

For UNCW to win this game, it’ll be important to limit the number of second-chance opportunities Missouri State can give its potent offense.

Not Mid, Mid-Majors

Overall, Baha Mar Hoops has put together a tremendous field of mid-major teams for this tournament. No matter who the Seahawks end up meeting, they’ll take on solid teams and a few great coaches.

• Vermont, the preseason America East favorite, went 28-6 and played in the NCAA Tournament last season after winning the league.

• Missouri State won 23 games last season and is picked No. 4 in the Missouri Valley.

• North Texas, 25-7 and C-USA regular-season champion last season, was No. 3 in preseason conference poll.

• Oakland, a 20-game winner last season, is picked fourth in the Horizon preseason poll. Coach Greg Kampe is nearing 700 career victories.

• Long Beach, Big West regular-season champion and 20-game winner last season, was chosen third in the preseason poll.

• Ball State was fourth in the MAC preseason poll this season.

• San Jose State is off to a strong start in the second season of Coach Tim Miles’ rebuild of the Spartans.