UNCW gets two shots at high-major programs this week

UNCW (1-1) at Oklahoma (1-1)

8 p.m. | Lloyd Noble Center | ESPN+ | Listen | Stats

UNCW Game Notes | Oklahoma Game Notes

The Seahawks aren’t going to sneak up on anyone.

Not after last Monday, when UNCW went into Chapel Hill and fought the nation’s top-ranked team for 40 minutes, landing a few punches on the No. 1 Tar Heels and frustrating one of college basketball’s most potent offenses.

The good news for the Seahawks? No need for sneaking up — just being themselves will give them a chance in every game left on the schedule, including two massive opportunities against high-major programs this week.

One of the most exciting nonconference swings in UNCW history begins tonight at Oklahoma, where the Hawks will meet what is expected to be an NCAA Tournament-quality Sooner team.

About the Sooners

Guard Grant Sherfield (15.0 points, 47.4% FG) is The Guy for Oklahoma, picking up right where he left off in two All-Mountain West seasons at Nevada. A gifted scorer, Sherfield is at his best when he’s attacking off the dribble. He’s equally comfortable getting to the rim or pulling up for quick elbow jumpers, but has the capability to occasionally step outside.

Immediately, you’ll notice the Sooners don’t have a ton of size for a Big 12 team, with only the 6-10, 240-pound Tanner Groves (9.0 points, 10.0 rebounds) and 6-9, 215-pound Jacob Groves (5.5 points, 3.5 rebounds) getting major minutes.

Oklahoma dropped their opener to Sam Houston State before a closer-than-expected win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with turnovers and rebounding the culprit in both games.

The Sooners are turning the ball over on 24.8 percent of possessions (302nd) and getting just 13.1 percent of offensive boards (349th). Because of that, SHSU finished with 21 more field goal attempts, while UAPB had a 10-shot advantage.

It’s not easy to win when your opponents are getting that many more offensive chances.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 198 overall; No. 215 offense, No. 190 defense.

KenPom rankings for Oklahoma: No. 47 overall; No. 76 offense, No. 21 defense.

KenPom forecast: Oklahoma 73, UNCW 57 (92 percent chance of victory)

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The Blueprint Matches

It certainly appears that the areas in which Oklahoma is struggling, are spots that have been strengths for UNCW this season.

Perhaps the most shocking development in the Seahawks’ loss at UNC was the 37-32 rebounding edge, including 16 offensive boards, resulting in 14 second-chance points. It wasn’t quite as surprising against Allen, but UNCW’s 17 offensive rebounds led to 25 second-chance points in that one.

(UNCW had a +10 FGA advantage vs. UNC, and +25 FGA advantage vs. Allen.)

Some of the same reasons the Hawks are succeeding on the boards — depth, length, athleticism and energy — are also beneficial on the defensive end.

With Maleeck Harden-Hayes atop the press, UNCW can use a trap to slow down opponents like UNC, or it can apply pressure and cause havoc as it did against Allen.

Given Oklahoma’s preferred deliberate pace and recent turnover issues, it seems likely we’ll see the Seahawks looking to pressure the ball, get deflections and run in transition.

Speaking of which — it’s imperative for Amari Kelly to remain on the floor. It’s a limited sample size due to the foul trouble against UNC and the blowout vs. Allen, but the advanced stats are overwhelming.

In the 25 minutes he’s played, UNCW is getting 20 percent more defensive rebounds and 8 percent more steals. On a per 100-possession basis, opponents would score 60 fewer points with Kelly on the floor vs. sitting on the bench.

Kelly, along with Harden-Hayes and Victor Enoh, all rank above the 90th percentile in offensive rebounds per 40 minutes.

A Shooter Emerges

Eric Van Der Heijden has the potential to unlock a new level.

Obviously, the bread and butter of what the Seahawks want to do is spread the floor and get the ball to playmakers, with the goal of touching the paint and creating buckets based on what the defense gives up.

Based on the quick, confident stroke we saw from Van Der Heijden on Friday night as he knocked down four 3-pointers, opponents will be facing a tough decision when it comes to sending defensive help on a drive from Shykeim Phillips or Trazarien White.

“I’ve always thought he was one of our key players, because of his ability to stretch the floor,” Coach Takayo Siddle said after Friday’s win. “He’s an elite shooter; I think he’s going to be one of college basketball’s elite shooters, and when we brought him here, that’s what we thought.”

UNCW has had some solid shooters in recent years, but it appears Van Der Heijden has the makings of one of the most automatic we’ve seen in Wilmington.

And regardless of whether he’s touching the ball, he’s changing the shape of the defense and helping his teammates get better looks.

“He can really shoot the ball and stretch the defense,” Siddle said. “Now, his IQ is at another level because he plays basketball the right way; he’s got a great feel.”

To The Cup

Speaking of getting into the lane, here’s where the Seahawks are getting their shots through the first two games, courtesy of CBB Analytics.

After a disjointed offensive performance in the opener with a total of three assists, it was encouraging to see a leap to 27 assists — most in the Siddle era — vs. Allen.

The proof is all over the shot chart, with 14 at-rim field goal attempts at UNC becoming 31 against Allen. Where the Hawks went 4/17 on midrange jumpers vs. the Heels, they hit 3/7 against the Yellow Jackets.

Maybe it’s not a 27-assist dunkfest tonight, but regardless of the opponent, it seems UNCW is committed to moving the ball and creating better looks than the ones it got in the opener.

And based on how much fun these guys are having celebrating one another on the court and on the bench, it certainly seems they’re invested in setting up their teammates for success.

A Little Perspective

What exactly do these games mean in the big picture for programs like UNCW?

When you’re playing in a traditional one-bid league, it would be silly to place much emphasis on nonconference games in the second week of the season.

BUT.

Beating a major, name-brand program gets you trending on Twitter and ensures a highlight reel on ESPN. It inspires your die-hard fans to make donations, and your casual alums to start paying attention.

These are most definitely the games that come up in March, when committees are considering NCAA Tournament and NIT teams. Any path for UNCW (or another CAA team) putting itself in the at-large conversation begins with pulling off a win like this one tonight (and/or Friday at Connecticut).

The Seahawks have absolutely nothing to lose this week, and an entire world of possibilities to gain. What an awesome week for our program!

NOTE: Since I’ll be watching this one from the couch, I’m looking forward to writing my first postgame breakdown of the season!