UNCW Looking for Revenge vs. Elon
The Phoenix took control of the paint vs. the Seahawks on Feb. 3
UNCW (21-8, 15-3) vs. Elon (10-21, 7-11)
6 p.m. | Entertainment & Sports Arena | FloHoops | Listen | Stats
The Seahawks find themselves in a familiar spot as they begin the postseason, but it doesn’t have anything to do with the program’s record ninth CAA regular-season championship.
Nope.
CAA Tournament Home | UNCW Tourney Notes | UNCW vs. Elon Notes
It seems outsiders still have the very same expectations they had for UNCW back in October: little to none.
Fine by us.
As the second-seeded Seahawks go for their record seventh CAA Tournament title, the bracket just might allow for a “Seahawk Revenge Tour,” with the possibility of facing each of the teams responsible for the regular-season losses.
UNCW begins its march through Washington, D.C. with Sunday night’s quarterfinal matchup vs. Elon, scheduled for a 6 p.m. tip at the Entertainment and Sports Arena.
Season Series vs. Elon
Jan 12: UNCW 73, Elon 66
Feb. 3: Elon 78, UNCW 65
Two very different games, as the Seahawks used a 12-0 run and some lockdown defense in the final 10 minutes to close out the victory in the first meeting. Elon actually led 55-45 before Mike Okauru scored eight straight to get things started in the right direction.
In February, Coach Mike Schrage and his staff completely altered the Phoenix’s gameplan (more on that, next) by occupying the paint on both ends of the floor. UNCW never cracked the code, missed some open shots and saw its 12-game winning streak come to end.
Over the two games, Elon’s Darius Burford scored 50 points on 23 of 30 shooting with only two turnovers. Multiple Seahawk defenders gave it a shot, but no one could keep the shifty point guard from getting to the basket.
Take Back the Paint
Having now watched the game at Elon twice (once live, one via Flo) it was a pretty bizarre night.
In every game before Feb. 3 and since, the Phoenix have relied on the 3-pointer, attempting 24.8 per game. In 16 games, they’ve attempted 25 or more.
But on that night vs. the Seahawks, Elon went 4 of 10 from 3-point range — easily their fewest attempts of the season. Next closest was 7 of 16 vs. Hofstra on Feb. 15.
Instead, the Phoenix came out and completely spread the floor, utilizing a high ball-screen to force UNCW into a switch. From there, they either had Burford with a favorable matchup on the perimeter, or they’d get their big man, Michael Graham, into a post matchup vs. a smaller Seahawk defender.
Generally, UNCW stuck with its no-help defense in the post that night, so as to not get hurt by kick-out threes to wide-open Elon shooters.
Graham (15 points, 11 rebounds) had one of his best games of the season, while Burford was unreal, going 13 of 17 on his way to 27 points on mix of tough finishes at the rim and quick pull-up jumpers.
In all, Elon outscored UNCW 44-16 in the paint, due in part to its performance on the defensive end, where the Phoenix decided it would put every available body in the paint and let the chips fall where they may.
That night, UNCW went 9 of 30 from 3-point range, which is well above this team’s general target around 20 attempts. Overall, the Hawks average 22.2 attempts, and the 30 vs. Elon were tied for the most in CAA play. (UNCW went 17 of 30 in the next game vs. William & Mary, ironically.)
Every time UNCW touched the paint, Elon scrambled to the ball like a pack of hyenas and made their presence felt physically. Sometimes fouls were called, sometimes the Hawks didn’t get the whistle — smart basketball if the officials will allow it.
As the above clip shows, the Seahawks got all out of sorts with no spacing, and spent far too much of the game watching their teammates operate on offense.
“We bought into what they were trying to make us do,” Siddle said afterward. “We were out of sync and didn’t execute. Our guys got caught up in the moment, I guess.”
This time around, look for the Seahawks to commit to touching the paint and operating the offense from there, either attacking the chest of defenders and finding great shots instead of merely good ones.
Once the ball enters the post, it’s a safe bet there will be more movement on the perimeter and guys like Jaylen Fornes and Jamahri Harvey will have an opportunity to knock down kick-out 3-pointers.
Embrace the Hate
Finishing 15-3 in the CAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
Despite the fact that only four teams have done it over the past decade — both UNCW and Towson this season — no one seems terribly impressed with the Seahawks.
All four of ESPN’s “experts” chose Towson, Ken Pomeroy’s formula gives UNCW the fifth-best chance to win the tournament, Pivot Analysis says the Seahawks are the sixth-best team in the league, while Vegas gives similar odds.
Just in case there was any concern over the Hawks being content with winning a regular-season title and overcoming a ninth-place preseason prediction, this should make Siddle’s job a little easier over the next few days.
They didn’t make a big deal of it, but the Seahawks were well aware of those predictions before — and throughout — the season, and had fun sticking into the people and formulas that never bought in.
Analytics have had a lot to say about UNCW this season: some of it good, more average and not-so-good. Since the middle of December, though, the scoreboard has told a different story 18 out of 21 times.
Doubt this team if you want, but that only seems to make them stronger.
Healthy Harvey
Per Jamahri Harvey’s Instagram post on Saturday night, it seems he’ll be available for UNCW in the tournament.
The second-year wing has missed the past three games after going down with an apparent leg injury vs. Towson on Feb. 17.
Harvey, averaging 17.6 minutes, is fourth on the roster in 3-pointers this season and provides a solid defensive presence off the bench.
With Harvey healthy, it figures UNCW will primarily have an eight-man rotation for the tournament, but it’s possible Jamarii Thomas and Khadim Samb could see some spot minutes, given the three-game, three-day run necessary to win a title.
Tip-Ins
Elon leads the all-time series 14-13, but UNCW is 1-0 vs. the Phoenix in the CAA Tournament.
The Seahawks are 21-7 all-time in CAA Tournament quarterfinal games.
UNCW is 6-0 in CAA play when James Baker Jr. hits a 3-pointer.
UNCW’s 41 CAA Tournament victories are most all-time, while its six championships are tied with Old Dominion.
The Seahawks have won the tournament as a No. 2 seed once, in 2016, when Siddle was an assistant. In all, UNCW has been the No. 2 seed six times.
Fornes was a member of the 2017 championship team and holds a 5-2 record in CAA Tournament games.
Jaylen Sims is the only other player on the roster with a CAA Tournament win, helping the Seahawks beat Elon in 2019.
As an assistant from 2015-17, Siddle was 7-1 in the CAA Tournament with two titles.