MAILBAG! Jaylen Fornes, CAA Title Scenarios and an Officiating Question

You’ve got questions. We’ve got non-scientific answers.

It’s been a strange week, going four whole days without a UNCW basketball game to preview, watch or analyze.

With only six games remaining, it seemed like a good time to turn it over to Seahawk fans and see what you might be wondering as the program heads down the homestretch in position to take home the CAA title.

Let’s get to a few questions that came in via Twitter and Instagram.

Is Jon Wall paid by the whistle?

One of the unfortunate realities of being in a mid-major league is that when there’s a packed schedule, the best officials will work in the bigger leagues, and that’s been a glaring issues on Saturdays in the CAA.

Wall, who has only called 13 Division I games this season per NatStat, has been among the trio calling UNCW’s games on three Saturdays this season: Dec. 18 at High Point, Jan. 12 vs. Elon and Jan. 29 vs. Hofstra.

The Hofstra game was a disaster for the officials that included 49 fouls, 46 free throws, a technical and a complete lack of consistency in calls against both teams.

The matchup with Elon saw the teams combine for 39 fouls and 33 free throws, while the win at High Point had 42 fouls and 51 free throws, with both teams losing a key player due to fouling out.

Among more than 650 officials that have called at least two Division I games this season, the average is 34.1 fouls per game.

For comparison, a few top officials and the foul average for their games: Roger Ayers (29.7), Ted Valentine (29.7), John Higgins (30.9), Doug Sirmons (32.2), Bert Smith (32.9).

There’s a reason those officials are among the nation’s leaders in games called.

Jaylen Fornes plus-minus this season?

Plus-minus can be a misleading stat because it doesn’t account for situations, so we’ll do you one better — measuring on-court vs. off-court impact on offense and defense per 100 possessions via Pivot Analysis.

Among rotation players, Fornes’ presence in the lineup is second on the roster, as the Seahawks are averaging 111.5 points. When Fornes is off the court, the UNCW offense is averaging 102.9 points — meaning the Hawks are a net 8.6 points better with Fornes in the lineup, which is third best on the roster.

Mike Okauru (29.9) and Jaylen Sims (12.6) are tops in net offensive impact.

Meanwhile, defensively, Fornes is second among rotation players in defensive impact on-court, as the Seahawks allow an average of 102.3 points. When Fornes is off the court, that numbers shoots up to 115 — a 12.7 point difference.

In all, UNCW is 21.28 points better per 100 possessions with Fornes on the court — second among rotation players behind Okauru (26.04). Amari Kelly is third at 7.32, followed by Shykeim Phillips at 5.83 and Sims at 4.16.

All that’s to say: Fornes has been UNCW’s unsung hero this season, especially as he’s elevated his game in CAA play.

Fornes also has a significant effect on a few key areas for UNCW, as the Hawks are much better at defending the 3-pointer and keeping opponents off the offensive boards with him in the linuep.

Those numbers exclude stats from the two games vs. non-D1 opponens.

How feasible is it for the Hawks to have a chance to clinch in Trask vs. Towson or JMU?

Sadly, it seems we’ll have to wait until the final weekend of CAA play until things are fully sorted out. Here’s how things are setting up right now based on conference records: UNCW (10-2), Towson (9-3), Hofstra (8-4), Delaware (7-4).

Here’s what’s left for each of those teams.

UNCW: Charleston (Feb. 12), W&M (Feb.14), Towson (Feb. 17), James Madison (Feb. 19), at Drexel (Feb. 24), at Delaware (Feb. 26)

Towson: Elon (Feb.12), at UNCW (Feb.17), at Charleston (Feb. 19), JMU (Feb. 23), at JMU (Feb. 26), Delaware* (Feb. 28)

Hofstra: at Delaware (Feb. 12), at Elon (Feb. 15), Northeastern (Feb. 19), Elon (Feb. 24), W&M (Feb. 26), Charleston (Feb. 28)

Delaware: Hofstra (Feb. 12), JMU (Feb. 14), at Elon (Feb. 17), at W&M (Feb. 19), Charleston (Feb. 24), UNCW (Feb. 26), at Towson* (Feb. 28)

The Hawks are in pretty good shape with four straight in Trask (Charleston, William & Mary, Towson and JMU) before finishing on the road vs. Drexel (Feb. 24) and the finale at Delaware (Feb. 26).

If UNCW wins out, it wins the regular-season title. A few matters of importance:

• Saturday night, Hofstra visits Delaware in what will essentially be an elimination game for the regular-season title. Meanwhile, Towson will be heavily favored at home vs. Elon.

• Pending both UNCW and Towson take care of business leading into Thursday’s matchup, the Hawks will either be in firm control of first place or fall into a tie with the Tigers, leading to a wild final week of league play.

• On the final night of the regular season, Towson and Delaware will get together to resume their game that was suspended on Jan. 27 with the Blue Hens leading 49-38 with 18:42 remaining. How bizarre would that be if the Tigers have a championship on the line?

• Hofstra has the easiest path to the finish line, playing four straight at home vs. Northeastern, Elon, W&M and Charleston.

• Towson faces the dreaded back-to-back vs. a solid JMU team.

What’s behind Trazarien White’s shrinking minutes?

So, what’s going on?

Over the past four games, Trazarien White has scored 12 points with zero rebounds in a total of 48 minutes, moving out of the starting lineup on Saturday at William & Mary.

This doesn’t seem to be a matter of a freshman hitting the wall in February when conference games are too fast and too physical — White is one of the reasons UNCW won at JMU on Jan. 20, finishing with 16 points and six rebounds.

It appeared White suffered some sort of injury to his right shoulder vs. Drexel on Jan. 31. He came out of game shortly after this play, and seemed to have a trainer working on it for several minutes.