Hawks Head Out For Another Road Trip
UNCW Goes For 13th Straight Win on Thursday at Elon
UNCW (15-5, 9-0) at Elon (6-16, 3-6)
7 p.m. | Schar Center | FloHoops | Listen | StatBroadcast
Oh, what a difference 18 days can make.
It was only several weeks ago the Seahawks were speeding into the great unknown, hitting the highway for four games across four states in eight days, facing more than 1,000 miles of travel before they’d be back in Wilmington.
Game Notes: UNCW | Elon
That’s a tall ask for even the most experienced of teams — much less one whose roster had only played 10 games together, and even fewer in the roles they’d taken on in a mid-December shakeup.
And now, 18 days later, we know that even the biggest questions are merely speedbumps for a UNCW program in the middle of an unprecedented run of 12 straight victories.
Somewhere along the way, we’ve embraced the unknowns and what type of history this team can create next time it takes the floor, starting with tonight’s visit to Elon.
Here’s what to watch for as the Hawks look to sweep the Phoenix and push their winning streak to 13 games:
When Last We Met…
Jan 12: UNCW 73, Elon 66
Coming off a 14-day COVID pause, the Seahawks looked every part like a team that hadn’t played in two weeks in the first half, shooting 29 percent from the field while allowing Elon to hit 13 of 26 attempts.
UNCW finally found its footing in the final 10 minutes as Mike Okauru keyed a 12-0 run that put the Hawks ahead for good with 6:29 to play, as the Phoenix shot 5 of 14 from the field with two turnovers over the last nine minutes.
Jaylen Sims scored 20 points to lead UNCW, while Okauru ended up with 13 points and seven rebounds and James Baker Jr. added 10 points, eight rebounds and three blocks.
Talented point guard Darius Burford dropped 23 points in the first meeting, while Hunter Woods finished with 14 points and eight rebounds.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 215 overall, No. 221 Offense, No. 193 Defense.
KenPom rankings for Elon: No. 267 overall, No. 234 Offense, No. 289 Defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 69, Elon 68 (50 percent chance of victory).
No Surprises
Unlike the last road trip when the Hawks were a mysterious team that had caught a little lightning in a bottle at the end of December, this UNCW team just ran through the first half of its CAA schedule unscathed and owns the nation’s fourth-longest winning streak.
Elon coach Mike Schrage and his staff have broken down the film a few times to get an understanding of how it was that the Seahawks suddenly came roaring back and blew up the Phoenix offense down the stretch.
There’s a lot more tape out there now on how the UNCW offense functions with Sims handling the ball and Shykeim Phillips relentlessly attacking the paint.
If the Seahawks benefitted from catching anyone off guard on the first trip, that’s no longer a possibility. People can say all they want about approaching every game the same way, but it’s a fact a team will get a little more juiced up to play first-place, undefeated UNCW as opposed to a program that hadn’t won a conference road game in two years.
From here on, the Hawks are going to take everyone’s best punches. Luckily, to this point, they’ve always landed a counter and knocked each opponent out in the 12th round.
There’s nothing a struggling team like Elon needs more than a momentum-boosting win over one of the hottest teams in college hoops.
Run ‘Em Off
Take the 3-pointer away from Elon, and the Phoenix sees its chances of victory dramatically decrease.
That bodes pretty well for a UNCW team that puts an extreme emphasis on running opponents off the 3-point line. In all, UNCW’s opponents are taking 29.9 percent of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, which is the 14th smallest rate in the nation. Meanwhile, 3-pointers account for 24.7 percent of points for opponents, which ranks 336th out of 358 teams.
On the flip side, Elon is going to do everything in its power to get shots up from deep, taking 46.7 percent (18th nationally) of its attempts from 3-point range, getting 40.7 percent (15th) of its scoring on the trey.
In wins, Elon is shooting 41 percent on 3-point attempts for a total of 12.7 per game, while those numbers fall to 32.4 percent on 8.2 makes in losses.
In the first meeting with UNCW this season, the Phoenix made 6 of 19 attempts from beyond the arc — numbers that are both Elon’s third fewest of the season.
During the Seahawks’ 12-game wining streak, they’re allowing an average of 5.6 made 3-pointers on 17.3 attempts. Opponents are shooting 32.2 percent.
Turnovers Matter … A Lot
There’s nothing more important to how the Seahawks play than turnovers — both not committing them and forcing them.
A stingy team from the start of the season, UNCW has taken it to another level recently, committing fewer than 10 turnovers in six of the past eight games.
Over that stretch, which began with a seven-turnover night vs. Elon on Jan. 12, the Seahawks have averaged just nine turnovers. That’s just 11.6 percent of possessions, which ranks in the 99th percentile during that eight-game window.
On the flip side, UNCW has forced turnovers on 20.4 percent of possessions (92nd percentile) for an average of 16 per game, with the Seahawks turning those into an average of 20.6 points (98th percentile).
Elon, which had eight turnovers in the first meeting, is the last team to commit fewer than 13 turnovers vs. UNCW.
Dinged Up?
Given that UNCW played eight games in nine days, it’s doubtful that anyone is truly at 100 percent.
In Monday’s win over Drexel, it appeared that Trazarien White was limited by an injury of some sort to his shoulder, as the freshman was scoreless in a season-low 10 minutes.
Amari Kelly, who had a wrap on his left thumb, played just two minutes and grabbed one rebound.
Both players have played major roles in wins over the streak, with White’s toughness and rebounding providing a boost, while Kelly has been an elite offensive rebounder and rim protector during his time on the court.
In the first meeting between these teams on Jan. 12, White had a solid eight-point, six-rebound performance.
Hopefully, those two are healthy and ready to contribute at some point on this trip because there’s going to come a time the Hawks need them.
Tip Ins
The all-time series vs. Elon is tied 13-13.
UNCW is 11-0 when scoring 70 or more points this season.
Sims is averaging 17.3 points in CAA play.
The Seahawks are 0-2 at the Schar Center.
James Baker Jr. is making 81.5 percent of his 2-point field goal attempts vs. CAA opponents.
UNCW is 6-3 on the road this season but riding a five-game winning streak.
Jaylen Fornes has made at least one 3-pointer in 11 straight games.
This will be the third straight week that UNCW plays Thursday-Saturday-Monday games. Pending no more schedule changes, it will be the final time.
Teams with current winning streaks of 13+ games: Auburn (18), Boise State (14), Wagner (13).
Teams with current winning streaks of 10+ games: Houston (11), Vermont (11), South Dakota State (11), Gonzaga (10), Jacksonville State (10), Murray State (10).