UNCW can tie a school record with its 11th straight victory

UNCW (13-5, 7-0) vs. Hofstra (13-7, 5-2)

7 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloHoops | Listen | StatBroadcast

What a night it will be in Wilmington as Jerry Wainwright his 2001-02 Seahawks get together for a reunion to honor UNCW’s second CAA championship team, and to this point, the only one to pull off a win in the NCAA Tournament.

With Brett Blizzard, Ed Williams, Craig Callahan and so many more memorable players, it’ll take a few minutes to get through their accolades during the halftime ceremony.

One thing missing from that list, however, is a 10-game winning streak like the one the UNCW team is riding into Saturday night’s big CAA matchup with Hofstra.

For all those legendary Seahawks accomplished as the program took off 20 years ago, they never did what this group of Seahawks has done for the past 49 days.

In fact, only once before has a UNCW team — the 2015-16 squad — reached this threshold, when it ran off an 11-game streak, starting on Jan. 9, 2016 before ending with a loss on Feb. 18.

Here’s what to watch for as the Seahawks look to make some history at Trask.

Meet the Pride

Key Players: G Aaron Estrada (17.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5 assists); G Zach Cooks (15.8 points, 3.8 assists, 2.1 steals); G Jalen Ray (14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 42.1% 3FG); F Abayomi Iyiola (8.1 points, 8.7 rebounds); G Darlinstone Dunbar (12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds); G Omar Silverio (11 points, 3.7 rebounds).

Hofstra wasn’t quite itself last season as Coach Joe Mihalich stepped away to focus on his health, but it hasn’t taken long for Speedy Claxton to get the Pride back in the hunt for a CAA title.

After all, the former NBA point guard inherited a program that has gone 85-38 over the past four seasons, including a 49-19 mark in league play with one NCAA Tournament appearance.

Like the best Hofstra teams we’ve come to know in recent years, this group features a wealth of talent on the perimeter that attacks the basket, takes care of the ball and makes the most of its free throw attempts.

Estrada (pictured) runs the show — and with the ball in his hands it’ll certainly be a show — and he’ll find a way to get buckets, whether it’s beating defenders off the bounce or knocking down shots from the outside. He’s equally talented as a passer, and Cooks, Ray and Dunbar are plenty capable of big scoring nights.

Hofstra took No. 6 Houston to overtime on the opening night of the season, won at Arkansas, and was the last team to beat Princeton, which currently holds a 10-game wining streak. The Pride also dropped a tough 69-67 loss at Maryland and played a close one before losing 82-74 to Iona and Rick Pitino.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 233 overall, No. 221 Offense, No. 223 Defense.

KenPom rankings for Hofstra: No. 109 overall, No. 65 Offense, No. 178 Defense.

KenPom forecast: Hofstra 73, UNCW 69 (36 percent chance of victory).

Locking In

After Thursday’s win over Northeastern, both players and Coach Takayo Siddle pointed out that the dynamic of UNCW’s season has changed in the past few weeks.

The Hawks won’t be catching anyone by surprise the rest of the way, and instead, opponents are circling these opportunities on the calendar. They’re spending a little extra time on the scouting report and turning up their Spotify just a little louder during pregame.

The challenge for UNCW is keeping its edge as the team with everything to prove after being voted ninth in the CAA’s preseason poll. It’s only human to let a little bit of that focus slip once you’ve experienced success.

Maybe it was the opponent, maybe it was the schedule. It might have been Northeastern coming out intent on getting physical and daring the officials to call it. Either way, the Seahawks didn’t have the fire they needed in the first half, and Siddle said as much, saying his team wasn’t competing hard enough.

That changed in the second half, as UNCW got back to its identity, strung together some stops and made some tough finishes in the lane.

Given Hofstra’s talent and results, the Seahawks should have no trouble coming out ready for this one. To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man — and lately, Hofstra has been the man in the CAA.

Magic Mike

There’s an argument to be made — and some pretty good supporting data — that Mike Okauru has been UNCW’s most impactful player this season.

Until last week, he had the best net rating for on/off-court impact, which measures the team’s output when the player is in the lineup vs. on the bench. Still, the Seahawk offense performs at its best with Okauru in the lineup, despite what’s been a frustrating run for the fifth-year guard.

Obviously, opponents know what he’s meant for UNCW and have made a point of getting between him and the rim, and occasionally, getting physical to slow him down.

Over the first five games of UNCW’s winning streak, Okauru averaged:

• 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists on 24/47 from the field, including 10/23 from 3-point range.

Over the past five games, Okauru has averaged:

• 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2 assists on 16/45 from the field, including 4/19 from 3-point range.

A few more makes from long-range, and that’s an entirely different story, but right now, he just can’t get the benefit of the doubt from officials at the rim, and he’s gotten a few bad bounces.

He’s due for a breakout game, and this would certainly be a good night for it, as the Hawks are going to when need every bucket they can get.

Defending the Nest

UNCW’s offensive improvement is easier to see, but it’s actually been defense that has made the biggest leap since the start of the winning streak.

Back on Dec. 13 as the Seahawks sat at 3-5, they ranked No. 320 nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and have now risen 97 spots in the rankings.

What’s behind that improvement?

Statistically, the Seahawks have stepped up their pressure and rank 70th nationally in defensive turnover rate, forcing them on 20.1 percent of possessions. They’ve been particularly opportunistic lately, averaging 16.8 takeaways over the past five games.

Aside from that, opponents are attempting a couple more 3-pointers per game while making a lower percentage, going from 37.8 percent over the first eight games to 33.9 percent during the winning streak.

When it comes to particular players, Jaylen Fornes has made strides on defense and now stands as UNCW’s most impactful rotation player on that end, with opponents averaging 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup. When he’s on the bench, that number goes to 116.3.

Amari Kelly is second among the rotation players, as the Seahawks improve by 7.8 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup, while Shykeim Phillips is third at 3.6 points.

The Seahawks are going to need all three of those guys at their best against an efficient Hofstra offense, and it certainly won’t hurt to have Kelly to clean up some mistakes on the back end.