UNCW’s winning streak has stood at four games for a fortnite

UNCW (7-5, 1-0) vs. Elon (4-11, 1-1)

7 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloHoops | Listen | StatBroadcast

After the adversity the Seahawks have already dealt with this season, why not add a two-week pause to the list?

Indeed, it has been 14 days since UNCW opened its CAA schedule with a statement victory, and in the process, earned the program’s first four-game winning streak since 2017.

Game Notes: UNCW | Elon

Now, the Seahawks will look to pick up where they left off in Wednesday night’s matchup with Elon at Trask Coliseum, as both teams look to build momentum after dealing with COVID-19 stoppages this month.

Here’s what to watch for on what is sure to be an unpredictable night in Wilmington.

Meet the Phoenix

Key Players: G Darius Burford (12.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals); G Hunter McIntosh (12.1 points, 2.9 assists, 38.5% 3PFG); G Zac Ervin (9.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 39.5% 3PFG); G Torrence Watson (10.1 points); F Michael Graham (7.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 58.9% FG); G Hunter Woods (6.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 38% 3PFG); F Chuck Hannah (5.1 points, 3.6 rebounds).

Poised to make a leap in the CAA standings this season, a challenging schedule and poor defense have been the main culprits in Elon’s early-season struggles.

Chosen sixth in the CAA’s preseason poll, the Phoenix actually got one first-place vote as a talented group of guard offered hope for Coach Mike Schrage’s third season.

Burford (above) leads the way, and through two conference games, he seems to be hitting his stride with 23 points in a win over Northeastern and 16 in a narrow loss at Charleston.

Alongside him on the perimeter, both McIntosh and Ervin are plenty capable of knocking down long-range shots, while wing Jerald Gillens-Butler has some scoring ability, albeit inconsistently.

The X-Factor for Elon is Graham, a sophomore big man who could make an even bigger impact if he could avoid foul trouble. Instead, he’s been limited to 18.8 minutes against Division I opponents, picking up four fouls in six of 13 games.

The Phoenix have given away a ton of points at the free throw line, ranking 357th of 358 teams in defensive free throw rate.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 289 overall, No. 269 Offense, No. 278 Defense.

KenPom rankings for Elon: No. 253 overall, No. 219 Offense, No. 282 Defense.

KenPom forecast: UNCW 72, Elon 71 (55 percent chance of victory).

Shake it Off

This might not be pretty to start with, and that’s OK.

Luckily, the Seahawks aren’t coming straight out quarantine into a game, as Coach Takayo Siddle said they returned to practice on Friday and he expects to have everyone available for the game.

Getting several practices in improves the odds for a strong performance greatly, but there’s going to be a layer of rust to knock off before UNCW finds its wind, catches up with the speed of the game and starts executing at a high level.

There’s no doubt this team has struggled with slow starts, but seemingly, the Seahawks have worked that out in recent weeks with Siddle adjusting the practice workload.

Basically, it’s a matter of finding their legs and rhythm early without falling in a hole, and hopefully, a Trask crowd eager for the return of basketball will be able to provide an emotional lift.

Elon has only played one game over the same two-weeks stretch, so the Phoenix aren’t exactly in midseason form, either.

Always Attack

Even against Delaware’s size, UNCW managed to take 48.3 percent of its shots either at the rim or elsewhere in the paint.

Considering Elon is a bit thin up front with only Hannah (6-7, 230 pounds) and Graham (6-8, 220) averaging more than 10 minutes, the Seahawks are going to be looking to well over 50 percent of their shots in the lane, where the Phoenix lack a true rim protector.

We went in-depth on UNCW’s offensive adjustments here on Tuesday, and this seems to be a perfect matchup for what the Seahawks will be looking to do in creating high-percentage shots around the bucket or getting to the free throw line.

Expect free throws to be a major factor, as Elon’s foul trouble has opponents averaging 19.2 made free throws per game, on 26.6 attempts.

Should the Phoenix collapse and crowd UNCW’s ballhandlers in the lane, they’ll be just as happy to kick out to the perimeter, where Elon ranks 314th nationally in 3-point defense, with opponents shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc this season.

That bodes well for a group that has hit 45.8 percent of its 3-point attempts over the past four games.

A Favorable Matchup

Elon loves shooting the three and will do it as early and often as the defense allows, putting up 45.4 percent of their total shots from beyond the arc — a rate that ranks 34th nationally.

UNCW, meanwhile, is extremely good at forcing teams off the 3-point line, with opponents putting up just 28.8 percent of their shots from long range — a rate that ranks sixth nationally.

With growing confidence in Amari Kelly as a rim protector for UNCW, expect the Seahawks to maintain their usual pressure, with wings hanging tight on shooters while challenging the Elon bigs to make plays in the lane.

Elon shoots it well from the outside, and will certainly knock down a few. The question is whether it’s a few, or whether it’s enough to change the game and alter the Seahawk defense.

Given that Elon also struggles with turnovers, ranking 285th nationally with a turnover rate of 20.8 percent, UNCW will have some opportunity to cause defensive havoc and force the Phoenix to put the ball on the floor.

This feels like a great matchup for Seahawk defense that has become above-average at blocking shots and defending vs. the 2-point shot. Sure, you’d rather opponents weren’t shooting 35.9 percent from 3-point range, but when they’re getting so few attempts, it’s a decent trade.

Don’t Forget