UNCW has a chance to build some momentum vs. the Panthers

UNCW (4-5) at High Point (5-5)

2 p.m. | Qubein Center | ESPN+| Listen | StatBroadcast

Now, let’s do it again and build a little momentum.

Coming off a dominant victory over a Division II program, the Seahawks will look to pick up where they left off, traveling to meet the Panthers in the sparkling new arena on Saturday afternoon in High Point.

This is a well-timed matchup with a similar, in-state opponent also looking to find its footing this season, as the Panthers have mixed performances both encouraging — a win over Elon and battling Notre Dame close — with the puzzling — a loss to South Carolina State.

Here’s what to watch for in the matinee…

Meet the Panthers

Key Players: PG John-Michael Wright (21.3 points, 5 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 41.4% 3FG); F Zack Austin (14.5 points, 7.2 rebounds); G Jaden House (11.4 points, 4.6 rebounds 40.6 3FG); F Emmanuel Izunabor (6.3 points, 4.3 rebounds); F Rob Peterson III (3.4 point, 5.1 rebounds).

Watching Wright in highlights is pretty darn entertaining. Watching him up against your team? That might be a little less enjoyable.

The 6-0, 185-pound point guard is an electric scorer whose game is predicated on knocking down long-range shots, then blowing by defenders who are forced to step out and guard him. What he lacks in height, he makes up for with a big, strong frame that helps him finish in the lane.

Meanwhile, the Panthers will lean on a defense that is anchored by two solid rim protectors in Austin (3.4 blocks) and Izunabor.

KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 303 overall, No. 270 Offense, No. 319 Defense.

KenPom rankings for HPU: No. 267 overall, No. 286 Offense, No. 220 Defense.

KenPom forecast: HPU 69, UNCW 63 (30 percent chance of victory).

Starting Strong

In general, the Seahawks haven’t come out ready to play this season, almost as if they’ve needed to get a few minutes under their belts to truly get things going.

It’s been especially apparent away from home, where UNCW has dug itself early holes at Pitt, Delaware State and Jacksonville, while also falling behind big vs. Southern Miss.

In all, the Seahawks have trailed at the 10-minute mark in six of their nine games, and UNCW coach Takayo Siddle addressed it last week by adjusting the way the Seahawks are practicing leading into games.

It didn’t quite work against Mount Olive, as UNCW trailed 26-19 before coming out of a timeout on fire, but clearly, the coaching staff is working to address the slow starts.

In two games in particular — Pitt and USM — the early deficits proved to be the difference, as UNCW rallies fell just short in the final minutes.

Exciting as it might be to make some of those comebacks, wouldn’t it be a little easier to not overcome a 10-point deficit? What about the confidence these guys would have if they came out with focus, executed from the start and then got to turn up the defensive pressure?

Given the adjustments Siddle is making with preparation and the good vibes carrying over from Wednesday, this very well might be the day that UNCW comes out flying high from the start.

The Kelly Factor

We touched on the emergence of Jamahri Harvey and Jamarii Thomas after the UMO game.

Another player quietly carving out a key role has been Amari Kelly, whose presence as a rim protector significantly effects the way that UNCW can defend.

On the surface, it doesn’t look huge, as Kelly as averaging just 1.5 blocks. Beyond the stat sheet though, he’s altering more and keeping opponents from attempting them all together.

With Kelly on the floor, opponents are getting 0.81 points per shot on attempts near the rim. When he’s on the bench, opponents are getting 1.10 points per shot. Opponents are making 55 percent on those at-rim attempts when Kelly isn’t in the game, versus 40.5 percent when he’s in the lineup.

Overall, Kelly’s presence in the lineup means opponents are getting 0.80 points per shot — a big improvement from 1.02 when he’s on the bench.

His ability to stay out of foul trouble and protect the rim will be a major key in limiting Wright and slowing down Austin.

Winning Indicators

When the Seahawks move the ball, they win. When they don’t, they lose.

Pretty simple, right? Well, there’s a lot more to the how and why of that, but the result is clear: UNCW is getting assists on 54.1 percent of its buckets in wins, while getting them on just 41.2 percent in losses.

A few more key number splits:

• Committing 13.7 fouls in wins vs. 20 fouls in losses.

• Subsequently, opponents are an average of 9/13 at the line in UNCW’s wins vs. 17/23 in UNCW’s losses.

• The Seahawks are getting 10 steals in wins vs. 6.2 in losses.

So, how are those related?

They all come down to tempo and movement, as assists mean players are cutting and getting the ball in position to score easily. When UNCW is getting steals, it creates transition opportunities for easy buckets.

When the Seahawks are fouling, however, they’re slowing down the game, allowing opponents to catch their breath and scoring with the clock stopped.

It’s not a coincidence that the games vs. Coastal Carolina (70 possessions) and UMO (77) were the fastest UNCW has played this season.

A New Home

HPU’s Qubein Center, a $170 million project that contains a 5,000-seat arena, opened back in September.

Not that UNCW will ever have THAT kind of money to spend on a new home, Saturday offers another look at a modern arena for a peer in-state school.

Just like Elon’s Schar Center and Campbell’s Gore Arena, it’ll be an intimate setting for basketball with modern amenities, and most importantly, premium seating options.

Eventually, the Seahawks will have to build a new arena or make wholesale renovations to Trask Coliseum to keep up, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to get a look at different options that might suit our needs down the road.

By all accounts, this one will be a game-changer for the Panthers’ program.