(String of Expletives, Heavy Sighs)
Where do Seahawks go after suffering another blow with loss of Jaylen Sims?
It’ll be a few years before we find out whether what UNCW basketball is enduring this season is some sort of voodoo curse ordered by a scorned former coach or a Faustian Bargain that results in three straight CAA championships, but this runaway train is already several miles past the marker for absurdity.
And that was before Jaylen Sims, the Seahawks’ leading scorer, announced via his Instagram account on Wednesday night that he’d miss the remainder of the season due to injury.
Let’s recap the rollercoaster the Seahawks have been on for the past year:
C.B. McGrath fired on Jan. 13, 2020.
Exposed to COVID-19 at CAA Tournament.
Takayo Siddle hired on March 13, 2020.
Siddle and new staff unable to fully work with team over offseason due to COVID-19.
Senior guard Jay Estime suffers another knee injury, knocking him out for the season.
Starting PG Shykeim Phillips out since preseason with infection in leg.
PG Ja’Juan Carr has yet to play for UNCW as he handles personal business.
Forward Ian Steere leaves program after playing one game.
Starting forward Joe Pridgen misses three games awaiting waiver.
UNCW notified of a positive COVID-19 test an hour before tipoff at Drexel , pausing the program for more than 10 days, forcing four games to be postponed.
Returning to action to start CAA play with a four-game, seven-day stretch.
In addition to Carr and Phillips missing all 13 games, the Seahawks have lost a total of 11 games from Sims, Ty Gadsden, Jamahri Harvey, John Bowen and Brian Tolefree.
Whew.
Even a few of those would be crushing blows to an established program, much less one with a first-year head coach still working to establish a system and culture with his new team.
Where do the Seahawks go from here with a roster of nine healthy players?
Evaluating Sims
Sims’ led UNCW in almost every offensive category, including his 17.8 points, 34.1 minutes and 85 free throw attempts. Per KenPom.com, he also used the most possessions (25.7 percent) and took the largest proportion of shots (24.6) while being among the nation’s leaders in drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line.
After Okauru, Sims had established himself as the Seahawks’ most reliable ballhandler and the guy whose hands it ended up in when they absolutely needed a basket. Last weekend, against Delaware’s zone, he did an excellent job of deciding when to attack and when to kick it to a teammate when the defense collapsed.
While he occasionally took questionable shots lately, Sims was by far UNCW’s best option to beat his defender and attack the basket. His 5.3 rebounds were second on the roster and vital for a team that needs rebounding at every spot.
Who’s Up?
In the games Sims came off the bench, Harvey moved into the starting lineup and more than held his own, albeit in an entirely different way. Harvey’s averages of 7.4 points and 2.2 rebounds don’t tell the story of his impact, as UNCW’s defense allows 101.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and gives up 114.9 with him on the bench — the largest gap on the roster.
Harvey’s offense is still a work in progress, as he’s shooting 36.2 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3-point range, but he’s shown the ability to get hot from beyond the arc, making 5 of 9 attempts on his way to 21 points against Towson and 2 of 5 when he scored 14 points at ECU.
Unless Phillips or Carr gets on the court soon, it’ll also mean more minutes for Tolefree, Imajae Dodd, and potentially, a few for former walk-on Brent Jenkins.
With Sims taking 12 shots per game, those probably go to Okauru, Gadsden and Harvey. The toughest thing to account for will be Sims’ seven free throw attempts per game.
An Interesting Note…
UNCW has used four lineups combinations for more than 15 minutes this season, and the grouping of Harvey, Okauru, Gadsden, Pridgen and Boggs is the most efficient on offense, averaging 1.18 points per possession over 22.7 minutes together.
That lineup also features the lowest turnover rate (11 percent) and outscores opponents by 14.9 points per 100 posessions.
The biggest issue with Harvey taking Sims spot in the rotation is rebounding, where opponents are getting 30 percent of offensive boards and 80 percent of defensive rebounds.
Where to From Here?
The Seahawks weren’t expected to be a contender in the CAA regular season standings, but after a hot start, there was optimism they could get into the upper-third of the league.
Since then, this team has taken one blow after another with COVID-19, injuries and the departure of Steere.
It’s going to be really tough for UNCW to get into the upper echelon without its leading scorer and go-to guy, buy by no means is this reason to cancel the rest of the season.
Okauru has played his best basketball lately and Harvey has proven himself as more than capable of handling a major role. Gadsden will eventually start knocking down shots, and more are coming is way.
In the short-term, it’ll take some time to redefine roles and get a feel for how to play in the absence of a guy like Sims. Rebounding will certainly have to improve from the guards.
One positive here for UNCW is the realization that no one player can account for his absence. With an excellent scorer like Sims, teammates sometimes have the tendency to stand back and watch him go to work. With that no longer an option, movement — ball and player — will have to become more precise.
In the long-term, all of the guys on the bench will have an equal opportunity to earn minutes and build their confidence. Maybe the Seahawks find a way to win some games, and if/when Phillips comes back, they find a groove in February.
Into next season and beyond, Harvey, Pridgen and the rest of the roster will have that many more shots and that many minutes of CAA experience. They’ll certainly be well-conditioned after this sprint to March.
It isn’t ideal, but at this point, all UNCW can do is try to make the best of a bad situation.