What to Watch For: Delaware at UNCW
Blue Hens, Seahawks both looking to right the ship
Delaware (4-6, 2-3) at UNCW (6-5, 0-2)
1 p.m. | Trask Coliseum | FloSports | Listen | Game Notes
CAA basketball! At Trask Coliseum!
Pending no late positive tests, the Seahawks will play host to the Blue Hens on Saturday and Sunday, bringing a sense of normalcy back to the program after a strange start to 2021.
Much hand-wringing has been done over last weekend’s results at Towson and the possibility that UNCW will be dressing nine players for the foreseeable future. What happens against Delaware will bring more clarity to just how much can be drawn from the 0-2 start.
The Blue Hens, chosen second in the CAA preseason poll, haven’t found a rhythm after COVID-19 issues delayed their season-opener until Dec. 5 followed by a rash of injuries that forced the league to postpone a game earlier his month.
It’s unclear whether they’ll have starters Aleks Novakovich (probable) and Kevin Anderson (questionable) this weekend, as both have missed the past several games with foot injuries.
(No word on whether President Biden has accepted our invitation to Wilmington this weekend.)
Key Players: F Dylan Painter (12.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks), G Ryan Allen (14.4 points, 2.9 assists), G Ebby Asamoah (9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals), F Andrew Carr (8.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists), G Johnny McCoy (5.1 points, 3.9 rebounds), G Kevin Anderson (12 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.3 steals), F Aleks Novkovich (6.4 points, 3 rebounds).
Last Weekend: The Blue Hens split a pair with Hofstra, winning Saturday’s game 74-56 before their comeback came up short in 68-67 loss on Sunday.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 190 overall, No. 172 Offense, No. 240 Defense.
KenPom rankings for Delaware: No. 248 overall, No. 264 Offense, No. 229 Defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 72, Delaware 67 (68 percent chance of victory).
Here’s what to watch for on Saturday at Trask:
Setting the Tone
That means two things for UNCW: come out with the energy that was occasionally lacking at Towson and play Seahawk basketball for 40 minutes.
Even with a full roster, Delaware would prefer to play at a glacial pace. Now, with the Blue Hens using a seven-man rotation, it’s more important than ever that the Seahawks pick up the pace, trap and pressure wherever they can.
Not only will the tempo bother the Blue Hens, but they’ve been careless with the basketball this season, ranking 250th in turnover rate and 321st in non-steal turnover rate. More possessions equals more opportunities for a mistake-prone team to give up the ball, especially moving at a tempo they’re not used to.
Obviously, UNCW has depth issues of its own right now, but given the program’s commitment to playing with pace, the Seahawks should be more equipped for a track meet with fewer bodies.
Besides, if there’s ever a game for Coach Takayo Siddle to use zone defense to steal a few possessions, this is the game. The Blue Hens usually play two traditional big men and struggle to shoot from beyond the arc, hitting just 29.4 percent of their 3-point attempts, ranking 304th.
Mismatches
At Towson, we saw the other side of what happens when you sacrifice size for speed, athleticism and shooting as the Seahawks shot 43 of 121 (35.5 percent) from the field, including 13 of 44 (29.5 percent) from 3-point range.
The losses were UNCW’s two worst shooting games of the season both overall and from 3-point range.
Related: the Seahawks managed a total of 15 assists. While assists don’t always tell the story about ball movement and the overall function of the offense, they certainly do in this case.
Siddle made no secret that he was disappointed with how his team shared the ball, saying that the Seahawks were too selfish.
Looking at Delaware’s personnel, the Blue Hens aren’t equipped to switch and keep up with UNCW on the perimeter, and a major focus of the Seahawk offense will be getting the 6-10, 235-pound Painter and the 6-9, 210-pound Carr away from the basket and navigating screens.
Creating those mismatches opens up the entire offense for UNCW, whether it be Joe Pridgen going to work in the paint against a guard, Ty Gadsden attacking a big man or a kick-out to an open shooter on the wing.
The Seahawks have to move — both themselves and the ball — much better than last weekend to make it happen.
Hitting the Boards
Towson won the rebounding battle 80-59, and despite that margin, the Seahawks had a chance to win both games.
If that’s just 75-64, we might be talking about two UNCW victories.
The point is that the Seahawks don’t have to be a great rebounding team, they’ve just got to be a little bit better — something that is definitely possible.
Jake Boggs managed just six total rebounds over the two games, while Jaylen Sims totaled seven. Both have shown they have the ability and both have been relentless in getting to the basket this season.
The Blue Hens are a fairly average rebounding team, but they do have one of the nation’s best on the boards in Painter.
He’ll likely get his average or better, but if the likes of Boggs and Sims can step up, it should keep Delaware’s supporting cast from making a difference in the rebounding battle.