What to Watch For: UNCW at Towson
The Seahawks return to action after a 27-day break
UNCW (6-3, 0-0) at Towson (1-5, 0-1)
2 p.m. | SECU Arena | Towson, Md. | FloSports | Listen | Game Notes
After four postponed games and 27 days off, UNCW will play basketball game this afternoon.
That is, pending negative tests for all parties on both sides, of course. Such is life this season, where the schedule is subject to change on a day-to-day, and sometimes, hour-to-hour basis.
Friend of the Perch Dan Spears took a good look at this season’s COVID challenges and how UNCW and the CAA evaluated a potential bubble.
Nearly four weeks ago when we last saw the Seahawks, they topped Delaware State for the program’s first three-game winning streak since 2017 and seemed to be settling into Coach Takayo Siddle’s pressing, uptempo style.
When (if?) things tip off this afternoon, there’s no telling who could be available for Towson, which was without starters Zane Martin, Juwan Gray and Charles Thompson in its loss to James Madison on Saturday.
Key Players: G Zane Martin (14.2 points, 5 rebounds, 3.2 assists), G Nicolas Timberlake (12.8 points, 4 rebounds), F Charles Thompson (8.7 points, 4.5 rebounds), F Juwan Gray (7.2 points, 4.6 rebounds), F Solomon Uyaelunmo (3.3 points, 5.5 rebounds) G Jason Gibson (7.5 points), G Demetrius Mims (6.5 points).
Last Game: The Tigers committed 19 turnovers and couldn’t get stops in a loss to the Dukes.
KenPom rankings for UNCW: No. 182 overall, No. 163 Offense, No. 235 Defense.
KenPom rankings for Towson: No. 238 overall, No. 194 Offense, No. 292 Defense.
KenPom forecast: UNCW 72, Towson 71. (51 percent chance of victory).
After the Break?
After the Dec. 23 win over DSU, UNCW’s players had four days at home followed by five days together in preparation for the scheduled CAA opener at Drexel on Jan. 2. After a positive test that day, basketball activities were paused for 11 days, until the Seahawks returned to practice on Jan. 13, giving them five days of preparation ahead of today’s game.
On one hand, the extended break means that a thin rotation got plenty of time to rest up and heal any minor injuries from the nonconference schedule, but on the other, players and staff were forced to deal with the realities of a pandemic hitting its locker room and halting the program’s most successful stretch in three years.
Projected most recently for a “mid-January” return, could Shykeim Phillips have an opportunity to make his debut this week?
Regardless of the benefits of rest and improved health, it’s impossible to imagine a team can just pick up where it left off after nearly four weeks without a game.
Just how quickly the Seahawks can get up to speed on Monday afternoon could be the difference in getting off to a 1-0 start in league play.
Trading threes for twos
It’s tough to draw many conclusions about Towson, as the Tigers have been clearly overmatched in half of their games.
What is clear, however, is that they’ll want to play a slow, deliberate pace and send as many bodies to the boards as often as possible. The Tigers dominated the rebounding battle vs. JMU 41-32, including grabbing 15 on the offensive end, even without three of their top rebounders.
Towson isn’t going to defend its way into a win, but with enough second-chance opportunities, the Tigers might be able to outscore you.
That’s a challenge for the Seahawks, who with a four-guard look, have struggled to rebound against opponents with traditional size this season.
Of course, where Towson might have a size advantage, UNCW can create mismatches with perimeter players where the Tigers have struggled to defend this season, allowing opponents to hit 38.5 percent of 3-point attempts this season. In terms of proportion, opponents are getting 44.5 percent of their points from 3-pointers against the Tigers — fifth highest total in the nation.
It’s likely UNCW loses the rebounding battle and points in the paint, but can the Seahawks make up for it from beyond the arc?
A New Approach
As we noted earlier this week in a look at lineup-based stats for the Seahawks, it’s not a good idea to remove Mike Okauru or Ty Gadsden from the lineup for long.
Currently, Jaylen Sims, Joe Pridgen and Ty Gadsden are all averaging more than 33 minutes per game, but it figures that Siddle will have to pick a few more spots to rest his top players, given the back-to-back CAA schedule this season.
Fortunately, Okauru, Gadsden and Jaylem Sims have all proven themselves as capable ballhandlers this season, and freshman Jamahri Harvey even got a look at the point guard spot in the win over DSU.
The rotation is bound to change to give the top of the rotation a little more rest. That will certainly happen when Phillips is ready to play and if Ja’Juan Carr returns this season.
The easiest fix, of course, would be if Imajae Dodd is able to continue the progress he showed on Dec. 23 when he had six points, four blocks and two rebounds in 16 minutes.
At any rate, Siddle’s management of the rotation will be worth noting as he tries to figure out how to best position the Seahawks for success with a strange schedule.