Here's What Data Says About UNCW's Lineups

The starters have dominated, but one group is devastating offensively.

And, at long last, we’re back.

After a 12-day break due to COVID-19, UNCW returned to practice on Tuesday in preparation for the trip to Towson, where the Seahawks will meet the Tigers on Monday and Tuesday in their opening CAA games of the season.

When last we saw UNCW, 22 days ago on Dec. 23, the Seahawks dominated Delaware State to push their winning streak to three games headed into the Christmas break.

With that game in control from the start, Coach Takayo Siddle had an opportunity to work through 21 different lineups, including a few combinations that aren’t likely to appear much in CAA play.

With that in mind, I took a look at which groupings have been the most effective for the Seahawks against Division I opponents this season.

Obviously, not a huge sample size and this will change soon with the return of Shykeim Phillips, but for now, a few observations from the data provided by Pivot Analysis:

Starters Dominate

Okauru | Gadsden | Sims | Pridgen | Boggs

Since Pridgen became eligible, Siddle as leaned heavily on his starting group of Mike Okauru, Ty Gadsden, Jaylen Sims, Jake Boggs and Pridgen.

Of a possible 205 minutes in the five games since Pridgen became eligible, the starters have played 41.5 minutes together with the next closest lineups at 13.1 minutes together.

Of the combos that Siddle trusts to play long stretches together, the starters have the best balance of scoring (1.22 points per possession) and defense (.97 points allowed), while its the only one with a positive rebounding rate.

This group has also been effective at forcing turnovers at an 18 percent rate and outscores opponents at a rate of 24.7 points per 100 possessions.

Going Small

Okauru | Gadsden | Harvey | Sims | Boggs

The microwave lineup, with a twist.

Plug in Jamahri Harvey for Pridgen and the Seahawks become an offensive juggernaut (1.42 PPP), shutdown defense (.79 PPP allowed) and cause all kinds of havoc, forcing opponents to turn the ball over on 32 percent of possessions over the past five games.

It’s rare that such an effective offensive lineup can also dominate defensively, but that speaks to the two-way versatility of everyone on the floor with four ballhandlers and five players who ca

n switch defensively.

The only problem with this group is a horrific rebounding rate, at -29 percent. Such is life when you sacrifice speed and versatility for size, but generally, it’s been a fair trade in the small sample size of 13.1 minutes.

Indispensable Guards

Okauru | Gadsden

There are arguments to be made for why all five of UNCW’s starters could be considered the team’s MVP to this point, but the numbers paint a pretty clear picture of who the Seahawks absolutely couldn’t do without.

Based on the points per 100-possession metric, UNCW’s biggest difference-maker is Okauru, who has a net-positive of 12.2 points when he’s on the floor, while the Seahawks have a net of -12.8 when he’s off the floor for a total differential of 25.

Gadsden isn’t far behind, with UNCW netting 11.9 points with him in the lineup and a mark of -12.2 with him on the bench, for a differential of 24.

Given Okauru’s role as the team’s top ballhandler, a physical rebounder and strong defender, that makes sense. Gadsden has been the Seahawks’ most consistent scorer and a hounding on-ball defender.

MVD

Harvey

Every team has one of those guys who, in the absence of big numbers, feels like he makes a difference every time he’s on the floor.

For UNCW, that’s Harvey.

The lengthy 6-5, 175-pound freshman is in a lot of ways, the prototypical player for Siddle’s system as a capable ballhandler who can fit anywhere on the perimeter as either a shooter or creator. More importantly, Harvey plays hard on defense with advanced instincts and has the length to bother bigger players.

The numbers back up Harvey’s impact, too, with the freshman holding UNCW’s best defensive rating over the past three games at 96.2 points per 100 possessions, helping him to the third-highest net rating on the team.

That impact is magnified by the fact that the Seahawks are giving up 115.5 points per 100 with him off the floor — the highest number on the roster.

What’s up, Dodd?

Imajae Dodd played his best basketball of the season in the win over Delaware State and seems to be earning a spot in the rotation after a slow start.

Still, it was surprising to see the sophomore big man struggle to find minutes after a promising freshman season. Is there a clear statistical explanation for what limited his playing time?

Most obvious, the Seahawk offense has been disrupted by having the closest thing to a true-post player on the floor, averaging 95.1 points per 100 with Dodd on the floor and 114.3 with him on the bench.

As Dodd gets more comfortable, however, he has shown the ability to impact opponents in the paint, holding them to .95 points per shot at the rim versus the 1.15 points UNCW allows on those shots when Dodd is on the bench.